STOCKMARKETS FALL IN ASIA

1 March 2007 - 04:30
The rebound in the US wasn't very impressive, as a result stockmarkets in Asia have fallen back again. It could be another difficult day tomorrow (I mean today) in Europe and the US. Depending on who you listen to it's either a good time to buy or not ! Personally I favour the cautious approach, some people expect further falls, and I'm one of them.

Consensus seems to be that this is a short-term correction (1 week?) but medium-term and long-term markets are still heading up.

Keep an eye on Petrel (PET) could be interesting - news expected soon, so they say.

For the inventive amongst you here's a $25 million dollar incentive to get your thinking caps on. "Richard Branson announced on Friday a $25 million prize for the first person to come up with a way of scrubbing greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere in the battle to beat global warming."

REALTIME US CHARTS

28 February 2007 - 19:17

To see the DOW or NASDAQ ticking up and down in realtime go here - http://www.quote.com/qc/livecharts/default.aspx - put DJIA in the window then click on INDU on the right hand side - change the time to 1 minute

INVEST IN CANNABIS ?

28 February 2007 - 18:20

How can you legally trade drugs ? Well GWP is a UK company that makes a cannabis-based drug for treating MS. They have had their problems in the past with the UK regulatory authorities, who have asked for more proof of the efficacy of the drugs, but not with the Canadians for some reason where there drug has been approved for use.

The chart shows some resistance around 102p. There was a positive RNS out today which sent the price up but that may just have been a knee-jerk reaction, it will be interesting to see if the upward momentum can be maintained. Current price is 95p.

STOCKMARKETS TO REBOUND ?

28 February 2007 - 13:25

The talk at the moment is that there will be a rebound today and that yesterday's falls were really overdone and some sort of knee-jerk reaction to nothing much - only 3% drop in the Dow - 24 hours is a long time ! Yesterday's talk of 4 or 5 days falls seems to have been forgotten already !

FTSE down 64 at the moment but that could change very quickly if the US decides to go up.

PETREL RESOURCES

28 February 2007 - 13:15

Petrel Resources (PET) could be on the move at last - rumours of news coming out from Iraq - plenty of buying at the moment. Watch this space?

DOW COMPUTER PROBLEMS

28 February 2007 - 02:15

It has been reported that computer problems added to the fall on the DOW.

From the Wall Street Journal

"Suddenly, at about 3 p.m. Eastern time, the Dow industrials fell out of bed, logging one of their fastest drops in history. Behind the abrupt 200-point plunge: a glitch in the mechanism that calculates the average

"The system fell behind," said Mike Petronella, president of Dow Jones Indexes, which is owned by Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal.
The result briefly made a terrible day look like an investor's nightmare"

DRAMATIC STOCKMARKET FALLS

27 February 2007 - 22:30

FTSE down 149, DOW down 416 after being down about 540 points at one stage. Quite a dramatic drop, the DOW fell 200 poins in about 5 minutes at one point, although it may have been due to a computer glitch. It's not expected to be the bottom either - give it a few more days the experts say - some say a 10% correction, which would take the DOW down to around 11,600. We shall see. Could be buying opportunities coming up.
AVZ fell back to 612p
BG. fell back to 617p.

Further to fall tomorrow morning no doubt.

PET held its own at 67p - news expected tomorrow re. hydrocarbon law in Iraq.

Other ones to watch III and YELL.

THE GREENSPAN EFFECT CONTINUES ?

27 February 2007 - 15:00

I noticed when Alan Greenspan was Fed Chairman that whenever he opened his mouth the markets went down short-term i.e. for 1 or 2 days. It didn't really matter what he said, although he was usually negative. There are people who think he was useless and should be blamed for a lot of what happened during the dotcom boom and bust -http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jun2005/nf20050628_8255_db013.htm

I just notice that whenever he speaks he seems to find a way of spooking the market.

Well, he isn't FED Chairman any longer but that obviously hasn't cramped his style, maybe he sees himself as a backseat driver, something like Margaret Thatcher thought she was when John Major took over at Number 10.

Greenspan recently said that the US may be heading for a recession. I wonder what Bernanke thought of his comments? Today the markets have slumped around the world DAX down 171, FTSE down 151, large losses in Asia overnight, DOW down 120. People have been calling for a 10% correction for a while now, so maybe this is the start ?

Maybe a buying opportunity coming up? I'll be waiting, being a cautious type.

CHARTS UPDATE

26th February 2007 - 13:50

Just for info. here's an update on the 4 shares mentioned below.

For ref.: FTSE 100 is up 38 points.

• AVZ - opened up at 658p and is now back down at 648p -(down 1p overall)
• BG. - moved up to 736p now back at 730p (up 12.5p overall)
• BT.A is up a fraction at 307.5p
• UU. - moved up to 762p - now back at 758p

Conclusion? There is none except that the recommendations made on Bloomberg don't appear to have made a difference, which is hardly surprising as these are all FTSE100 companies. Watch this space - I may go long on AVZ this p.m.

Wall Street is expected to popen up around 38 points.

Are Charts Any Use for Picking Stocks ?

24th February 2007 - 15:50

Do charts have any value when buying or selling shares, or are you better off reading tea leaves? Personally I think charts do have some value, for two simple reasons a) they reflect the behaviour of crowds or big money ; b) lots of people follow charts and lots of city people with big money follow charts, they therefore become a self-fulfilling prophecy - e.g. if the charts of co. xyz show that 700p represents a break-out and a good time to buy, then people will tend to buy at 700p, the share price rises as a result of the buying, thus proving that it was the right time to buy! A self-fulfilling prophecy.

The only problem is how to interpret the charts and buy when (or just before) everyone else does!

One chartist - Manoj Ladwa - has just been on Bloomberg TV. His interpretation is that Amvescap (AVZ) and BG. are good medium-term buys, whereas BT. and UU. are medium-term sells.

• AVZ - he said it's at a new high and the trend is set to continue, there are also bid rumours circulating, it has support at 600 – 620 but upward trend is solid and he doesn't expect it to fall. If it breaks below 600p that would be a negative sign, but he doesn't expect that to happen. Price at the moment is 651p.
• BG. - There has been a sharp rally over the last couple of months after a breakout – it retraced to 700p and found support – bounced back – now expects move up to 800p over next 3 – 6 months. Price at moment 718p.
• BT. – he says has run out of steam, the RSI (relative strength index) is below 50 and has been trending lower for the last couple of months – if it breaks under 300p it may drop to 280p at which point it becomes a low risk buy. Price at moment 306.5p
• UU. – similar to BT – a head and shoulders pattern – taken out neckline support at 730p, RSI trending lower – momentum down – back to 700p over couple of months . Price at moment 753p.

I report all this for information not as a recommendation to do anything other than watch and see if he got it right. I don't know his track record and people often have their own agenda, so all to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Guy Monson on CNBC

23 February 2007 - 17:10

Guy Monson is an 'expert' - he works at Sarasin Investment Management. He is one of the few 'experts' I actually trust - most, in my humble experience, are little more than paid 'guessers' - it might go up if it doesn't go down blah blah blah. Guy Monson consistently gets it right - and tells it like it is - he is rarely a 'raging bull' but is bullish when he thinks it is the right thing to be.

He says he is still bullish on equities for the remainder of 2007 - he reckons a 15% rise over year (inc. dividends and PE expansion).

For the complete interview check out CNBC.com

Another 'expert' I trust is Art Hogan in the US. He seems to have an uncanny knack of getting the market direction right! Maybe because he manages so much money he can actually influence the market? Listen to him when he talks.

FTSE Closes Up 20

23 February 2007 - 16:45

FTSE closed up 20 (my prediction was up 15 - so maybe it was a prediction and not a guess after all!) [Score so far after 2 days - 1/2 ] DOW is down 38 at the moment - so a divergence between FTSE and DOW which is odd as the FTSE usually follows the DOW around like a dog. But most European markets were up today - maybe the DOW will recover later (my DOW prediction - close 10 points down). The UK market was quiet all day - watch PET next week - news expected on March 1st re Iraq Hydrocarbon law.

REL closed at 616.5 (keeping an eye of poss. buy target of 607). A director sold a shedload (340,000) of option shares at 621.5 and €14.0614

"Mr Patrick Tierney, a director of Reed Elsevier PLC and Reed Elsevier NV, exercised on 22 February an option granted under the Reed Elsevier Group plc Executive ShareOption Scheme over 200,000 Reed Elsevier PLC ordinary shares at an option priceof 451.50p per share, and 140,000 Reed Elsevier NV ordinary shares at an optionprice of €9.34 per share. Mr Tierney sold all of the shares following exercise at 621.50p per Reed Elsevier PLC ordinary share and per Reed ElsevierNV ordinary share."

DOW drops 32 Points

23 February 2007 - 14:55

DOW opens to the downside - a couple of people on CNBC have mentioned a 10% correction - are they trying to talk the market down ? Manipulation is rife. As always, we shall see.

FTSE still 7 points up

UK is pretty sleepy - not much going on at all. ARM still ticking up slowly despite director sales.

Banks down - LLoyds TSB hefty profits not enough to keep it up, so they have come up with a new wheeze / scam - charging 35 quid a year to people who don't use their credit card enough. I use mine but I shall cut it up and send it back. If enough people do the same maybe they will get the message.

Electric shock Therapy for Internet Addicts in China

Nothing to do with shares, but couldn't resist - don't you just love the Chinese - Internet addicts get electric shocks to cure them of their addiction !

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17251571/

FTSE Up then Down then Back Up - so far

23 February 2007 - 12:05

FTSE opened up then turned around and went down - now back up again - currently 6382 (up 1)


Guy on TV has just said buy Reed Elsevier (REL) at 607p - good results were announced on 15th Feb. - price went up to 645p - now falling back on profit taking (presumably) - so the guy said buy when it gets to 607p - we shall see - right now its 618p to buy.

DOW Finished Off Lows

Dow finished at 12,686 about 30 points off the low of the day.

Prediction (guess) for tomorrow FTSE up 15 points by end of day.

DDT Takeover rumour

22 February 2007 - 20:07

Dimension Data rose 1-3/4 to 49-1/2 on takeover talk, after the Sun newspaper linked BT with a possible bid for the IT services group.

One to keep an eye on perhaps.

FTSE opens up

22nd February 2007 - 14:00

FTSE opened higher then fell back - up 37 points at the moment (so much for my prediction!). US waiting for inventories number apparently.

ARM going nowhere. SBT up 7%.

PCI another one to watch although it may be another one that got away - maybe there will be a treeshake to give a buying opportunity.

Dow up 10 points - ten minutes after opening.

19:55
DOW turned negative - allegedly due to noises from Iran - down 71 with 1 hour to go. FTSE closed at 6381 (up 24 - 1 prediction down the pan but maybe I was just a day ahead Dow is not looking healthy at the moment)

ARM turned round and finished positive. PCI strong today. SBT up but maybe running out of steam? PET static.

Stocks and Predictions

22nd February 2007 - 01:45

I've had to alter the title and some of the content to remove a lot of the guff. This site/blog will deal with stockmarket issues, stocks, shares, news, as seen by me, a deranged novice. I don't know much, and I trust very few people. But I will tell it like it is, or at least as I see it. I may be a very good indicator of what not to do like that guy in the US who was hired by a stockbroking firm because he decisions were so awful he always lost money. They hired him and do the opposite of whatever he decides apparently. So keep an eye on me I suspect I may be one of those!

The stockmarket is a place where money can be made, for the simple reason that some people lose money there, the trick is not to be one of the losers. It's a dog eat dog world. I don't trust city types, company directors or bankers (who I also hate) or financial journalists. Alan Sugar, a successful businessman and maker of computer equipment amongst other stuff, here in the UK, once said his message was simple "we want your money"! Honesty, how refreshing!

Well, I don't want your money, but unfortunately, not being independently wealthy, I do need money, which explains the existence of this site. I will track the stockmarket, report on any 'investments' I make and hopefully make some money to pay the mortgage along the way.

I do think that the stockmarket is slightly more predictable than pure random chance, but it is greatly skewed in favour of all those who have 'inside information', which of course they never act on because that would be illegal.

Two days ago I went long (bought) on ARM when the spread was 132 - 136. It seems to me to be a decent medium-term (1 month) investment but I was a bit alarmed to see some directors sold a bunch yesterday, although that didn't seem to affect the price much. So we will see. Other shares I'm looking at are PET (oil wells) and SBT.

I will also make a daily FTSE prediction to see just how hopeless I am at predicting FTSE closed at 6357 - I reckon a dull day finishing slightly down at 6348

• I read somewhere that bullet points are very important when writing a blog
• If I can think of any I'll write some
• But not today