US economic data better than expected - DOW rising

30 March 15:00

DOW up FTSE down - there has been a strange disconnected between the DOW and the FTSE over the last few days, they often end up going in opposite directions. The FTSE was down this morning but the DOW has decided to go up.

VOD is weighing on the FTSE - down 4% at the moment which is a lot for such a big company and it's probably knocking about 10 points all on itw own. It said its profit margins are being squeezed after they introduced lower tariffs to gain mor ecustomers.

Autonomy has shot up 7 % after being upgraded byGoldman Sachs who added it to their 'conviction buy' list. The 7 year chart is 'interesting'





The 3 month chart shows resistance just above 700p and it may have got slightly ahead of itself today - another one to watch






Over in the US plenty of economic data - personal income and personal spending better than expected and the DOW is up 57 as a result. the FTSE looks like it wants to turn positive.

Dendreon up 190% after yesterday's news !

DOW up - DELL accounting errors - halted - Dendreon to skyrocket !

29 March 2007 : 21:10

Stockmarkets - DOW finishes up 48 after bouncing up and down all day (spooky - scroll down to see my earlier post where I quoted David Buick who predicted this morning that the DOW would bounce and close up 45 points today ! - memo to me 'pay more attention to David Buick' ) NASDAQ up 1 S&P up 5 FTSE up 57

Markets moved up even though crude oil was up too - T Boone Pickens says crude oil will go to $75 before $55 (he likes making predictions) it finished at $66 a barrel today

Technology was weak all day but recovered. The DOW is still on track for its worst quarter since Q2 2005

Late breaking news : The FDA panel has just said that Dendreon's prostate cancer drug is 'reasonably safe' and that there is 'substantial evidence' it (Provenge ) is effective . Share price was halted today but it is expected to skyrocket tomorrow. Well done to any holders.

Dell is delaying filing its next report - says Audit panel has identified a number of accounting errors and deficiencies - trading halted - not expected to skyrocket tomorrow !

In London, Scottish & Newcastle jumped 64 pence to 595p after talk that Heineken were eyeing up the brewing group, although the rumours were not taken seriously by some "I'm hearing talk of a Heineken bid, but it looks more like a 'oh, the stock is moving let's make up a rumour' story to me," said one dealer. But others said that S&N's 50% stake in BBH, was a "big enough tempter" to encourage Heineken. "That's probably the greatest nugget of value you have left in the brewing industry right now," he said. "whichever way you look at it, getting to Scottish is a way to get a foothold in the BBH business."

ARM was upgraded to 'buy' from 'hold' by UBS. III reported good results and moved up ! Any more of this and I'll be in profit !

Bernanke Clarifies his Thinking ! DOW falls - FTSE rises

29 March 2007 - 11:00

Well Bernanke spoke and most people took what he meant to mean no interest rate cut any time soon. He told Congress told Congress that core inflation, excluding more volatile food and energy costs, remained "uncomfortably high,". He also said subprime mortgage market problems could delay a housing recovery, but he felt the crisis had been contained, and doubted there would be any further knock-on effects.


All pretty clear then and the DOW duly dropped 96 points, although it had been 140 points lower earlier in the day, but it is worth pointing out it could have been worse.

But economists still can't agree on which way interest rates are heading According to Tim Smalls of Execution LLC "Anybody that was looking for a rate cut shortly is fooling themselves, the market may have reacted too positively to the Fed's statement last week."

Craig Smith CEO of Swiss America Trading Corp. said "It would make sense to lower rates to stimulate that market, but I don't think Bernanke could do that in light of his concerns about inflation."

But Michael Trounce Chief Interest Rate Strategist at Nomura says he is still expecting Bernanke to cut interest rates relatively soon as inflation may be high but it is expected to fall and wider economic indicators indicate the need for lower rates.

Michael Buick says Bernanke will remain 'flexible', he believs subprime lending is under control. He also aded he expected a 45 point bounce today (pretty specifc there so we can see if he gets it right!) but he seemed to impy that it will be just a bounce not anything more substantial.

All fascinating stuff!

Overnight Asian markets rose with the Chinese markets hitting a new record intraday high. Let us not forget that it was China allegedly that caused this recent 'correction' when it fell sharply around a month ago. Well they seem to have forgotten about that pretty quick, so have the pundits I might add, and is anybody still talking about the Yen carry trade ?


Here in the UK the FTSE is higher after positive updates from Compass and III.

III, one of the stocks I've been watching lately rose 28p better to 1,163p, in early trading after revealing it will return £800m to shareholders, following high returns from sales. It also stated that new investments for the first 11 months of 2006 rose to £1.598bn against £1.184bn for the same period in 2005. At the moment however the share price has fallen back to 1146p. It is rated a 'buy' by Merrill Lynch.

Over on the PET BB at ADVFN they are once again expecting news 'soon'. The price has recently recovered from 60p to 70p and at the moment appears to be resting before deciding what to do next. If the 'news' does actually come then the share price could become 'interesting'!

ICI is up 8p on 'bid speculation'.

YELL is trying hard to go higher but it is like wading through porridge ! Maybe the US wil help this afternoon.

FTSE flat ahead of durable goods and Bernanke statement - Subsea up 62% !

29 March 2007 - 12:45

FTSE more or less flat (down 12) waiting for US durable goods data from February and also Ben Bernanke to provide some certainty and make the universe a better place (hmmmmm). Mr Bernanke is due to speak this afternoon. There now seem to be 3 camps concerning what he said last time.

1. He has removed the tightening bias and his next move will be to lower interest rates
2. He hasn't removed the tightening bias and his next move will be to increase increase rates
3. He has moved from tightening but hasn't quite gone as far as easing

And Ben Bernanke has a reputation of clarity compared to Alan Greenspan ! It seems to me what he has done is create more confusion so that the markets don't know which way to jump, thus creating a sort of stalement in which the markets don't really go anywhere. Perhaps this was his cunning plan all along to stop the recent decline ? Or maybe I am reading too much into it ?

Be that as it may he is due to give us Part Deux this afternoon but nobody is really expecting him to clear anything up. So why the statment we may ask? To try and convince everyone he is doing something to earn his wages ?

Back in the markets Subsea Resources (SUB) has shot up 62% this morning from 5p to 8p. SUB floated on the AIM market back in November 2004 at 20p and after working its way up to 40p subsequently plummeted - like this !

What do they do? They look for buried 'treasure' on the sea-bottom (quite exciting really)

"The principal activity of the Company is the recovery of high value non-ferrous metals and other valuable cargoes from deep water ship-wrecks (in excess of 1000m). This activity primarily involves the location and recovery of bulk cargoes of non-ferrous metals in modern metal-hulled wrecks, where title can easily be established and where original owners can be identified ("commercial salvage"). The majority of these commercial cargoes were lost during the First and Second World Wars, other principal targets were lost in the 1970's."

So why is it up? Nobody seems to know, the investors over at ADVFN BB are in the dark and some of them seem to have been in it for a long time, i.e. since it was 40p ! There must be something happening though as stocks don't move 62% for no reason.

If you like recovery situations have a look at Emerald Energy (EEN) who have just announced an oil find

From the ADVFN BB

'An oil sample was obtained and had a measured API gravity of 21degrees at surface conditions.' 21 degree API oil is better than expected. Not so heavy and should flow ok. eg Much better than Campo Rico oil which is 16 degree API.

Seems reasonably positive

DOW wobbles - FTSE comes to the rescue !

27 March 2007 - 15:55

DOW down 65 FTSE up 10 ! For some reason the FTSE hasn't followed the DOW down for once (Maybe they new I was thinking of shorting something!)

The Conference Board's survey fell in March, for the 1st time in 5e months to 107.2 (the consensus was 109.0) and the February reading was revised downwards to 111.2.

The numbers don't seem dramatic to me, so my uneducated guess is that it's just general jitters and some 'profit taking' or possibly prices just being marked down for the fun of it ! The spending report is also being described as not economically significant, but a market that is sensitive to weak data has viewed it as another excuse to take some profits.

There was also a profit warning from home builder Lennar to add to the fun.

I confidently expect therefore to see the markets rally later on.


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FTSE slumps after bright opening

27 March 2007 - 12:50

Well the FTSE started off brightly enough - up 35 at one point, but then caught a cold and decided it had had enough. Although it is recovering slightly now. I suspect it is the DOW futures driving us up and down again.

March consumer confidence data is due at 14:00 GMT so that may set the tone for the rest of the day. A poll of 75 economists by Reuters expects consumer confidence to fall to 108.5 in March from 112.5 in February. Watch this space.

Stephen Pope (a professional) was on CNBC he reckons mining stocks and copper are a good bet, I suspect he has just read the new report by the ICSG (maybe he even wrote it?).

According to the report by the International Copper Study Group copper capacity is expected to reach 24.4 tonnes by 2011, an 18% increase from 2006. 'China and Chile will be the main contributors to the total refinery capacity rise.'

On the stockmarket base metals were steady as a result of falling inventories and confidence that demand in China was not easing. According to Deutsche Bank 'Falling inventories reinforced confidence that Chinese demand was recovering to a degree sufficient to offset lingering weakness in the US housing sector'. Tin remained close to its new all-time high of 14,575 usd due to concerns over a reduction in stocks and about supply from Indonesia.

Production levels are being affected by government measures against illegal small-scale mining in Indonesia, the world's second largest producer (China is no. 1). It seems private tin smelters are unlikely to receive export permits after being told to get themselves new mining permits (they must be pleased - what they gonna do with all those bags of tin?).

So Stephen Pope says copper is likely to remain strong given reduced supplies and inventories and steady demand in China and India. Minign stocks should do well he says (ANTO, XTA, BLT, KAZ, VED - for info. he didn't specifically recommend any stocks.

FTSE at the moment is up 2, which is a pity as YELL was doing OK until everything turned south ! Perhaps it will turn north again in a minute.

One that is doing well today despite the soggy market is THUS, I had intended grabbing some at 170p but got sidetracked it's now at 186p (they won a contract) and looking good, maybe it'll drop back a bit so I can get in at the price I want (famous last words !).

III has dropped back to 1143p after its recent excursions into the 1170s maybe it'll fall a bit further ? I'll be watching it too !

MDW has fallen back today - one for the long-term investors I guess (which I am not) but it seems to have plenty of potential.

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DOW recovers to close down 12 S&P and NASDAQ finish positive

26 March 2007 - 21:30

The DOW quietly made its way back from 100 down to finish 12 down even the financials and homebuilders came back, this after very poor housing figures in the morning. Volume was light. The FTSE should open up higher tomorrow, although it may depend on what Asia does overnight. All in all a positive day given the recovery on such poor figures. Maybe the third leg down isn't going to happen after all ?

Apparently wealthy investors are putting their money into stocks, not into real estate.

DOW drops on poor housing numbers

26 March 2007 - 15:25

Poor housing numbers spooked the stockmarkets, DOW now down 98 FTSE followed suit of course and is now down 46

Art Hogan on CNBC says the markets were spooked by today's housing numbers, and have overreacted, plus there is some profit taking after last week's strong gains. He says durable goods numbers will be important later in the week and also Ben Bernanke who is due to speak again and hopefully clear up what he said last week. Hmmm is that a pig I just saw flying buy ? I think they make things as murky as possible on purpose (they like to feel important). Tip : Avoid gurus who don't tell it like it is !

So far my current favourite YELL is holding up well which is a good sign !

EMED is another one that is improving - rising back to resistance levels, another on eon the watch list.

Highland Gold (HGM) Shares Improving

26 March 2007 - 14:35

Not much happening with the stockmarkets today - FTSE (up 10 at the moment - DOW down 15) so I have had a look at Highland Gold, which has just started moving up. The charts looks interesting





There seems to be a pick up in volume and another 'golden cross'
"A crossover of a security's short-term moving average (such as 15-day moving average) above its long-term moving average (such as 50-day moving average) or resistance level.

As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market.

Technicians might see this cross as a sign that the market has turned in favor of the stock. " [From Investopedia]

They have had their problems in the past, notably a fire at Darasun, but they seem to be recovering. Another one on the watch list.

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Watching Mediwatch (MDW) - Faster Prostate Cancer Test

24 March 2007 - 12:55

Prostate cancer is something that concerns a lot of men as they grow older. The UK company Mediwatch has just announced that it has developed a new test which can help detect prostate cancer in 10 mins. at 1/3rd of current costs.

'PSAwatch' detects raised levels of prostate specific antigen in blood samples. The test can be administered by a nurse at your local GP's.

CEO Philip Stimpson said “It is small enough and cheap enough to have a place in every GP's surgery. The directors believe that ... this is a major step towards successfully combating a disease which is affecting millions of men across the globe,”

PSAwatch, received European Union approval last month and it is hoped US FDA approval will be given this autumn.


Shares rose 37% on Friday - so another one to watch. It may jump again on Monday morning, after that who knows in ths short-term but long-term it looks interesting. I've got to admit it's not one I know much about but there are knowledgeable guys/gals on the ADVFN BB who are enthusiastic about the prospects.

The 7 year chart is 'interesting' - it seems to have been caught up in the bubble back in 2000


A quick look at the 5 year chart shows some resisistance at 15/16 and 21/22p




The 2 month chart shows the formation of a 'golden cross'




So one to watch and research into.

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Markets up - Kensington Subprime Mortgage Problems

23 March 2007 - 14:05

Just been in blogger hell. Spent half an hour writing a post and then lost it ! Aaaagh!

DOW has just moved sharply up on good house sales data. FTSE now up 20.

Back in the UK we have our own subprime problems. Shares in subprime lender Kensington slumped 16% after it isued a profit-warning for next year as a result of increasing competition. CEO John Maltby has resigned with immediate effect. (But don't worry he probably has a nice platinum parachute lined up).
Kensington specialises in lending to people who can't get a mortgage anywhere else . There are takeover rumours, but in the present climate I can't see them getting a 'premium price'.

Over on the ADVFN BB 'roverisback' predicted just such a scenario back on 13th March so well done Rover.

Partygaming (PRTY) has suddenly gone potty - up 14% at one point - rumours abound.

YELL is creeping up slowly - could do with some more rumours please.

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DOW rises again - best week since July 2006

22 March 2007 - 20:15

DOW closed up 14. Incredibly it is on track for its best week since July 2006. Volume was only average - financials and techs were weak - but it has been a great week for energy, oil, commodities (copper).

Nobody seems to know what the FED meant by its statement - some say tightening some say easing - but the markets have gone up two days in a row since the statement and it is significant that after yesterday's sharp rise that the markets did not give back any of their gains. There was an attempt at sending the DOW down but it didn't come to much and the DOW ended up on the day.

I bought some YELL at 592p, because the DOW was moving back up at the time and YELL seems to me to have a fair amount of upside in it at these prices, plus there is the rumour of a possible takeover, which may get more press over the weekend.

People on the ADVFN bulletin boards are expecting big news for PET on 28th March. I may have a closer look tomorrow.

My guess/prediction for the markets is more upside tomorrow! My score so far is about 4/9 (very impressive - not).

How are your investments doing?

DOW falls back - FTSE up but falling

22 March 2007 - 14:00

Asian marktes up overnight. European markets up too, although the FTSE is not up as much as the DAX and the CAC. FTSE up 46 at the moment. The DOW has opened very slightly down and the internals are weak, more volume in declining stocks. Yesterday's rise may just have been short covering so now the momentum has run out of steam.

Jobless claims numbers were good.

I expected the markets to go down yesterday so they went up, no surprise there then. I am trying to apply logic to an illogical situation, which in itself is not logical. "Hmmmm fascinating Jim, it's logic but not as we know it."

III powering ahead now that I have sold ! Aaaagh. (I'll buy back if they drop down again).


YELL is looking interesting, takeover rumours yesterday but not much follow-through today. Chart still looks interesting though. I've put it back on the watchlist in case it starts moving up again.

DOW now down 20 FTSE still up 39 but off the highs of the day.

How are your investments doing?

FED leaves interest rates unchanged - says inflation is biggest risk

21 March2007 - 18:40

DOW up 114 NASDAQ up 26 S&P up 17

Well there was a unanimous decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The FED statement says that inflation remains the biggest risk. The bulls didn't get the statement they wanted, so according to some there is no likelihood of any reduction in interest rates any time soon. So this is exactly what the bulls didn't want to hear, but the markets have gone up, which leads one to conclude that they were going to go up anyway, no matter thwat the FED said ! Some of course are now saying that in their statement the FED has formally taken away the tightening bias ! Aaaagh! [Stop Press : DOW up 160 but it now turns out that the FED according to many people has not taken away the tightening bias, so we were right the first time ! and the rise in the US markets is just a 'short' i.e. people getting squeezed and being forced to buy back their shorts !]

There is of course another hour and a half of the day left. !
How are your investments doing?

YELL takeover rumours

21 March 2007 - 18:00

According to Reuters someone may be getting ready to make a bid for YELL - "Shares in Yell Group (YELL) rose 3.6% after talk of bid interest for the UK-based directories publisher.

Yell was not available for comment. "Someone is stalking them," one trader said."




There was a sharp rise at the end of the day and I was tempted to take a punt but the possibility of the DOW falling back after the FED statement later and of course the possibility that YELL might issue a statement denying the rumour persuaded me to keep my powder dry. I may regret it, especially as YELL is one I have been watching for a while! How are your investments doing?

DOW down FTSE up ! - waiting for the FED

21 March 2007 - 15:25

DOW down 14 but market internals are good. Unusually the FTSE is up 38, due no doubt to the budget reaction, if that is the case I would expect the reaction to be short-lived so the FTSE will have to get back in line with the DOW at some point. The weak DOW is apparently not too important. Housing news was good, the Yen has stabilised. Fedex figures were too good but are not affecting the markets because everyone is waiting for the FED. Everything could be different at14:30 NY Time. Ben Bernanke is very good at soothing the markets and they love him on Wall Street, mainly because they understand what he says, not like that other guy!

Gordon Brown has reduced our income tax by 2% which should come into effect just before the next general election, what a happy coincidence ! But he has also apaprently abolished the lower rate 10% tax band, which he somehow forgot to mention.

Paula Tallon, director and head of direct tax at Chiltern, says smaller companies are getting thumped again. "While headline Corporation Tax will go down, for smaller companies it is not good news, as the small companies rate is going up by 3%. This unlikely to be neutralised by the reliefs announced. Once again the less powerful are paying the price."

This is strange for a chancellor who is supposed to be more of a 'socialist', he seems intent on clawing back money from the little guy and sucking up to the big corporations.

For the masochists amongst us the full text of his budget is here : http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=6029168&subject=general&action=article

Fat Cat Bankers - Smarter than Your Average Mugger

21 March 2007 - 11:47

The FTSE is up 25 at the moment, but basically it is waiting to see what Ben Bernanke says after the UK markets close and how the DOW will react. There are still plenty of people expecting a third leg down, so maybe we'll get it, I've got to admit that's what I'm expecting, not that there is any particular reason why the markets should go down, just that if enough people expect it or are more afraid of buying than of not buying then down it will go.

The DOW has had its best 2-day rise since February, moving up 177 points so far this week. The Nasdaq rising 14 points to 2,408. The FTSE has been following up behind.

Budget day in the UK with the 'Stalinist' Gordon Brown raising taxes no doubt. Expect more taxes on petrol as he jumps on the green bandwagon to remove more money from your pocket so he can waste it giving it away to somebody else!

Greed is Good ! But it does give off an awful stink.

HSBC made record profits of £11.5bn last year, yet staff were forced to accept below-inflation pay rises averaging just 3%. The bank also has the lowest starting salaries, £10,000.

In contrast HSBC CEO Michael Geoghegan decided to help himself to £7.8million (£150,000 a week or £30,000 a day, in case you were wondering) - only a 72% increase on the previous year. He also stuffed more than £12.5m into his pension pot. So next time you are wondering why bank charges are so high, now you know, Mr Geoghegan has decided he wants more of your money in his bank account. It may be only £25 here and there, but it all adds up ! He has also decided that his employees can live for year on less than he makes in one day ! What was that song by Fagin ? "You've got to pick a pocket or two!"

HSBC has, however, closed its final salary pension fund to new members, to save money, so that's alright then.

And what about the rest of the bunch down at the farm ?

Lloyds TSB
Profits: £3.7 billion +8%
Staff pay rise: +3.8%
Starting salary: from £11,389 Final salary pension fund closed to new staff
Highest paid director: Chief Executive Eric Daniels £1.9million - pension: £1.5million

RBS
Profits: £9.4billion +16%
Staff pay deal: 4.1%
Staff starting salary: £11,000 Final salary pension fund closed to new staff
Highest paid director: Chief Exec Sir Fred Goodwin £4million - pension: £5million

HBOS plc
Profits: £5.7 billion + 14%
Staff pay deal 4.4%
Starting salary: £11,000 Final salary pension scheme closed to new staff
Highest paid director: Chief Executive Andy Hornby £1.3million - pension: £1.2m

BARCLAYS
Profits: £7.1billion +35%
Staff starting salary: £12,000
Staff pay rise: +4.75% Final salary pension fund closed to new staff
Highest paid director: Chief Executive John Varley £2.3million - pension:£6.4m

Snouts in the trough ? Personally I find it disgusting. I really don't understand the mentality which seems to force people to stuff their pockets at other people's expense. It's basically just more legalized theft. A more intelligent form of mugging.

Markets turn positive

20 March 2007 - 17:20

After starting negative the US markets turned positive DOW is now up 49 NASDAQ up 13 S&P up 7 no prizes for guessing that the FTSE turned up to follow the DOW and closed up 30

The US economic data was OK. Housing starts are good, inventory is down, FED will not do anything i.e. it will not lower lower interest rates, which is seen to be good for some perverse reason ! Also the Yen has stabilized against the dollar and there are lots of mergers and stock buy-backs to buoy the market.

Bears (Peter Boockvar - from Miller Tabak) reckon there is a lot further to go to the downside due to credit bubble caused by Grenspan cutting rates to 1% - it will all end in tears. Lighten up on stocks and get into cash, bonds and gold. He's looking for a 30% drop in the stockmarkets - sounds like he's shorting stocks to me ! But what do I know, he may well be right.


Another bid rumour surfaced in London, this time it was Whitbread (WTB) - rumoured bid coming in at £23

ICAP was also higher on bid talk at 522.5p, with rumours of a 700p per share bid. But listen to this - "a London-based sales trader said bid rumours have surfaced over talk that chief executive Michael Spencer, who owns 21.7% of the group, is looking to spend more time with the Conservative Party and is keen to offload the stake" does this mean there will be a 700p bid? Or does it mean that said Michael Spencer wants to sell his stake but he wants the price higher before he sells? I for one will be giving ICAP a wide berth.

House prices in the UK are being given a boost by foreign buyers. 33% of houses bought in Central London are bought by foreign buyers and this figure rises to 75% forhouses over £ 5 million. Average house prices in Central London tripled between 1996 and 2006

A first ! The FSA has fined former Citigroup equity analyst Roberto Casoni £52,000 for market misconduct. He used to be head of Citigroup’s Italian small and mid-cap research team and leaked details of a research note to selected clients prior to its publication (a bit naughty but hardly earth-shattering news, except that he got caught - how the hell did that happen?).

Dancing On Ice (a ridiculous TV program here in the UK) has been hit by 'phone vote problem'. Why on earth do people phone in to such rubbish in the first place ? Is the human race congenitally stupid ? You wanna see something really stupid - check out Twittervision.com - I ain't got a clue what it is and I stuck it for 2 minutes !

Gordon Brown to Grab Money from your Bank Account

20 March 2007 - 14:41

Just a quick word while the markets are going nowhere.

If you have money in a bank account which you never use, e.g. money placed in an account when you were a kid, fear not Gordon Brown intends stealing it and using it for you. See story here: Daily Mail

FTSE mainly going nowhere

20 March 2007 - 11:00

The FTSE started higher but has since turned down, but is mainly going nowhere, no doubt waiting to see what the FED says or doesn't say and waiting to follow where the US decides to go. Asian markets were up slightly.

Bids, bids, bids,

Whitbread rose on rumours of a bid at £23 per share. Whitbread was up more than 7 pct in reaction, Citigroup said it believes a break-up of the company by a third party could "unlock property value". One dealer said 'We've only been open 2 hours and there are already four bid stories out there.It's just people trying to create a bit of mischief.'

Bid rumour no. 2 around the Prudential (PRU), AIG of the US is reported as possibly offering 850p a share (733p at the moment) - easy money ? highly unlikely - probably too easy so I'll wait and see.

Bid rumour no. 3 - this time around ICAP talk of 700p bid (511p at the moment, the chart is strangely similar to that of PRU).

Bid rumour no. 4 - Marstons in the FTSE 250. Plus, of course, Barclays and ABN, people must be bored.

US futures are negative, so my prediction/guess for the rest of the day is still negative.

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DOW up 116 on light volume

19 March 2007 - 20:05

DOW had a strongish day in the end and finished up 116 but volume was light, so there was no great conviction. People are still talking about a third leg down and remaining 'defensive', but volume needed to show people are coming back into the market. FED is meeting over the next 2 days and the markets want to hear there may be some movement on interest rates at some point.

My prediction/guess is for a down day tomorrow.

Stockmarkets fall back slightly

18 March 2007 - 14:10

DOW opens up then moves back slightly - FTSE down from highs of the day.

Energy, gold, brokers, home builders all up. The FED 2-day meeting starts tomorrow and the statement will be important. Markets need to see that the FED may be softening its stance re. interet rates, i.e. they need to imply htye may consider lowering rates. There are still people wanting the 10% correction although they still think a 6.5% increase in the S&P is likely this year, which means up 8% from current prices. Others see volatility continuing for next 2 - 3 weeks as a good buying opportunity.

At the moment the markets are falling back from their highs DOW up 56 FTSE up 12 - well off highs. I was going to pick up some III again, but I think I'll wait.

Another good site for candlestick chart information - they even give recommendations and show their track record (good so they say - 90% success rate) is British Bulls - it's free, just type in the 3-letter code to get their candlestick analysis.

FTSE up following rises in Asia

19 March 2007 - 10:30

FTSE up 32 at the moment following rises in Asia where Shanghai fell 2% before bouncing back and finishing up 3% - it is now back above where it was before the 'correction' started 2 weeks ago!

Edmund Shing says there is still the possibility of a new down leg, even though technical analysis says the correction is winding down. Basically he doesn't trust the technical analysis, there has been a correction then a double bottom in Shanghai but he still thinks there may be more to come, so that's fine then, but it ain't technical analysis - more of going with your gut! US construction will be a drag on GDP he says so short-term risk continues.

In London the Prudential (PRU) is the highest riser. The Observer said the Tosca fund, is increasing its stake in the insurance giant, leading to speculation that it could face pressure from it sahreholders to break itself up. It is up 21p at the moment .

III is bouncing again and at this rate could soon be back to its recent highs of 1180p, pity I don't have any ! But it is still proving very resilient and has still got a long way to go to get back to its highs of 2000.

SWING TRADING - PIVOT POINTS - CANDLESTICK CHARTS

17 March 2007 - 17:42

Whilst searching for the infallible trading system (which apparently does not exist) I stumbled across this excellent site, which readers may wish to check out. It has lots of free information, which to my mind is a good sign, as it indicates that the guy who runs the site actually makes money from trading shares and not from selling books on how to trade shares SwingTradeStocks

Stockmarkets weak

16 March 2007 - 17:11

Stockmarkets
DOW down 47 NASDAQ down 8 S&P down 5 FTSE closed down 2

Core inflation inline, industrial production quite strong, but food prices rose. Next week housing is the big issue, and also the statement by the FED Chairman. Need to watch FEDEX figures too, as they tend to move before the rest of the economy. Traders confident FEDEX will show good figures in middle of next week.

The FED chairman is due to speak next week and on CNBC Art Hogan said he is expecting the FED to sound more flexible next week, he says they need to focus less on inflation and more on production and he reckons they may impy they will be adding liquidity to the system i.e. reduce interest rates. Equities would get some stability from such a statement - Grenspan was quick to add liquidity when he was FED Chairman and the markets need encouragement that the FED will react. So watch out for the FED statement next week asi tic ould get markets moving again.

Manoj Ladwa of TRADINDEX says the FTSE is bouncing around between 6000 and 6300 and a break above or below this range would be significant and a time to buy or sell.
He also gave two tips to watch Home Retail Group (HOME) could rally from here (443p) to 500p, but if it falls below 410 - 400p it would be time to get out - there have however been lots of broker upgrades

Drax (DRX) has been holding up well in these weak markets, if it closes above 740 - 750 (745p toda) it could move up 10 - 15%, but it needs to see an increase in volume. It's a good defensive stock and could outperform if the FTSE starts moving up.

VODAFONE

16 March 11:58

Paul Kavanagh from Killik on CNBC just mentioned that the Vodafone price is starting to look interesting. It's fallen back from 150p to 138p, it could fall further of course if the markets continue their downward move, but one to watch.

TRIPLE WITCHING AND IDENTITY THEFT

16 March 2007 - 10:45

FTSE down slightly after yesterday's recovery and falls in Asia overnight.

Today is triple witching when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all xprie on the same day. Volatility is expectd as a result but sof ar we haven't seen it. Banks are down most. And now after yesterday's PPI which was bad we are now all on hold until we get the CPI data which are expected just before Wall St opens, after which the FTSE will go wher the DOW futures go.

Elsewhere we have discovered that we can't even trust Blue Peter, which is also not above 'fixing' its phone in competitions! So if we can't trust Blue Peter, can we trust the stockmarket ? I leave you to provide your own answer to that one. (For our non-UK readers, Blue Peter is not a star of the porn industry but in fact a kid's programme on the BBC that has been around since the beginning of time, providing good clean entertainment to the nation's kids, surrounded and ably assisted by all manner of cute fluffy animals.)


In a aimilar vein we learn, once again, that banks have been dumping customers' details in bin bags in the street. They cunningly did not put stickers on the bags saying 'Secret Customer Details - DO NOT TOUCH - THIEVES WILL BE PROSECUTED' as they felt some of the more daring criminal element might have ignored this warning. Nevertheless, given that we are constantly being warned of the dangers of Identity Theft, some people feel that the banks were acting like the pillocks we know them to be! No doubt they will blame it on Tracy or Wayne.

The Deputy Information Commissioner no less said that this practice was 'unacceptable' (he doesn't mince his words!) and added 'if banks do not take security seriously they risk 'further action' from the Information Commission. Wow they must be quaking in their boots. The banks involved (and found out) were Halifax-Bank of Scotland, Barclays, Alliance & Leicester, Royal Bank of Scotland, NatWest, Nationwide Building Society, the Co- operative Bank, HFC Bank, Clydesdale Bank, the Scarborough Building Society and United National Bank. Plus the Post Office and the Immigration Advisory Service.

The bin bags contained names, addresses and bank account numbers, i.e. all anyone needs to steal an identity, change account details, take out loans or get hold of credit cards and debit cards in the victim's name.

You can tell there's not muching happening on the stockmarket this morning!

SWING TRADING - DAY TRADING

15 March 2007 - 18:40

If you are looking for strategies to apply for swing trading and day trading then I can recommend this site The Stock Bandit

Here is a brief resume but the site gives a whole load more information

1. If a stock gaps 1-2%, enter 1/2 of the intended position size and monitor the stock for its behavior before adding. If the gap holds, then add to the position.
2. If a stock gaps 2-3%, only enter 1/4 of the intended position size.
3. If a stock gaps over 3%, it may be best to pass on the trade entirely, as the risk/reward profile of the trade is no longer the same.

DOW down then UP - FTSE up then down then back up

15 March 2007 - 14:09

DOW up 20 NASDAQ up 7 S&P up 4 FTSE up 94

Despite the poor economic news from the US, the DOW has managed to bounce back up after initially selling off. Of course that could all change in the next half hour and don't forget there is Mr Greenspan who is scheduled to speak again today! He has the knack of spooking the markets and given that he thinks interest rates should be cut (see earlier article) he might say something to spook the markets to try and encourage Benanke to cut interest rates (highly unlikely apparently) and maybe I am being too cynical?
See charts and realtime FREE stock quote

DOW Futures turn negative FTSE bounce unconvincing

15 March 2007 - 13:10

DOW Futures turn negative - PPI were 'hot' i.e. likely to turn the stockmarket down - not what the market wanted so we could be in for another rough day. One trader says the markets might react the same as yesterday, i.e a sharp fall followed by a recovery.

Food inflation was also a lot higher than expected. The FED is therefore unlikely to cut interest rates any time soon.

The FTSE was up over 110 at one point, now just 92 up. So although the FTSE bouned it wasn't very convincing as far as bounces go, particularly with all the M&A activity boosting the market too. As always the DOW will let us know what to do.
See charts and realtime FREE stock quote

Fascinating Analysis of Why Greenspan Spoke !

15 March 2007 - 10:56

Roger Nightingale of Millennium Global Investments has just presented a very interesting analysis of why Greenspan has started raising the possibility of a recession. He (Greenspan) is scheduled to speak again later today. Normally a retiring CEO is instructed not to say anything so as not to undermine his successor. Greenspan knows this yet he has gone out of his way to say what he thinks.

According to Roger Nightingale there is a very definite reason for this. Namely, Greenspan actually thinks he went too far when he was FED Chairman and increased interest rates too much. He did this to contain debt, but in doing so he probably provoked the whole subprime mortgage debacle. He now wants Bernanke to do something about the problem, i.e. reduce interest rates in order to avoid a recession because he (Greenspan) would be blamed if there is a recession. A very interesting analysis and one that I haven't heard before, it also actually makes sense, as Greenspan is usually very careful in everything he says. It's a pity that Roger Nightingale wasn't allowed to develop his thoughts further, as he kept getting interrupted in mid-flow by the CNBC talking heads who seemed more interested in hearing their own voices then actually listening to what Nightingale was saying !