Get Thee Behind Me Greenspan ! Markets Reach for the Garlic

25 May 2007 - 13:18

What is it with Alan Greenspan ? My theory is that he really wanted to be a movie star. He just won't go away. Not content with messing up the economy while he was FED Chairman he seems intent on staying firmly in the spotlight.

Look mom, no hands ! Was he neglected as a child? After his previous two attacks on the housing market, he has now come up with something else to keep his name in the papers and on TV - China. Apparently China is heading for a serious correction ! Right, what a genius.

Perhaps if the media stopped talking about him he would just go away. He rarely seems to have anything useful to say, apart from stating the obvious. Is his aim to drive the markets down (is he shorting the market? - nah he wouldn't do that would he?) . Or is it that he just can't stand being anonymous and unimportant? I opt for the latter, by making declarations of dubious worth he is trying to convince himself that he is still a player.

When he made his famous irrational exuberance statment for the first time back in the nineties, the DOW fell for two days then promptly turned around and continued on upwards for the next 3 years! So eventually he was proved right, so was able to say "I told you so" pity about the timing though. This time is no different, he keeps trying to influence the markets, with some short-term success, but this just provides buying opportunities. The markets then recover and continue on their merry way. No doubt he will eventually be right about China, but if his past track record is anything to go by, it looks like Chinese markets are headed higher for the next three years!

I am not alone either David Buick says Greenspan sshould keep his mouth shut and let Bernanke get on with the job.

Some viewer on CNBC says Greenspan is the new C Fred Bergsten ! (A guy who was always wrong)

Joe Kernan blames the media (haha) but Greenspan is playing to the media ! - change your job Joe.

On CNBC this morning Tom Hougaard believes there may be a short-term 8 - 10 week sell-off in the markets, based on profit-taking and a holiday mood but overall the fundamentals look good. I think he is wrong! TH's track record ain't too good either, so I reckon my guess might be just as good as his.

April durable goods are up 0.6% and March durable goods have been revised to 5%

FTSE is down 20, due in part to Greenspan, but I am confident the DOW will recover and head higher and drag the FTSE with it (maybe).

In the UK KCOM may be a takeover target after Hull City Council sold its 30% stake at 68p (not a good price it seems to me) they are 74p at the moment - anothe rone to watch but I will wait to see if it falls back a bit.

Likewise with KMR, good news recently has caused a breakout so I will be watching to buy in on any fallback below 53p (56p at the moment).

SLN is being very strange today, it raced up to 120p then quickly slumped back to 116p. I am still confident and hope to see 125p soon, rumours continue to swirl.

YELL has done the opposite, down then up so I am tempted to get some more.

Cable & Wireless has dismissed takeover speculation as "market mischief-making". A 20% rise in profits boosted the group's shares.

The Finance Director, said: "There is no imminent bid activity as far as we are concerned."
The group reported EBITDA up 20% to £492 million in the year to March 31, £15 million ahead of the most optimistic analysts' forecasts. Pre-tax profits rose from £100 million to £249 million, shares are up nearly5% at the moment.

The profits improvement was achievd on the back of improved performance in its international business and cost-cutting in the UK, where it has been restructuring operations. Some 3,000 jobs will be cut from the UK division, now renamed Europe, Asia and US, over the next five years.

The 7-year chart looks interesting



More upside seems like to me.

DOW and SnP at all-time highs - FTSE up too !

23 May 2007 - 15:44

DOW and SandP at new all-time highs FTSE up (!)

Apple not happy about the iGasm (no prizes for guessing what it does)- story here iGasm

My current favourite SLN (Silence Therapeutics) has woken up again after 2 sleepy days during which it fell back to below 110p at one point, today it is back up to 118.5p, with rumour sstill swirling around and volume picking up.

On a totally unrelated note you might want to forget about the stock market and make money buying and selling domain names instead 'greeting.com' recently sold for $350,000 ! NetMonetization

Analog Devices down 11% on disappointing results.

Sonoco Chairman sells 60,000 shares i.e. over $1.2 million.

In the UK Collins Stewart says buy Barclays (BARC) ahead of tomorrow's trading statement, arguing that bad news is unlikely during a bid process, on the other hand Panmure Gordon says sell, arguing that a merger with ABN Amro will still be diluting value by 2010. So you know what to do!

Panmure Gordon has also raised its targets on building stocks Galliford Try, Interior Services, ROK and Keller, arguing there will be increased interest now the bid for Hanson has reduced the number of choices for anyone "wanting to play the construction cycle."

Dresdner Kleinwort thinks the 9% drop in Glaxo (GSK) is too much and represents a good buying opportunity, but it is a bot if a lone voice at the moment. The FDA will be reportingin June so people may wait till then.

Dresdner Kleinwort is also advising people to buy online gambling firm PartyGaming (PRTY) after its recent falls. They are confident in the long-term growth of the industry and says the decline in player numbers may have been caused by last month's record weather (seems odd to me !) and is repeating its target price of 60p.

MandS is back in favour today after yesterdy's 5% drop as traders decided the fall was overdone (even though they were the ones that overdid it). It has been upgraded to buy from neutral by UBS which raised its target from 800p to 825p saying : 'Although the retail industry outlook is clouded by base rates, we are reassured by the visibility of earnings drivers and likely significant increase in the value of the property portfolio.', i.e. MandS are selling more stuff and they have lots of properties they can sell if need be.

Vodafone (VOD) is up over 4% today which is very odd for Vodafone, something must be up, peolpe are quoting healthy profits due to be announced and also the fact that Vodafone will not be involved in expensive takeovers.

YELL is up but only slightly, I would have expected more, perhaps the weekend press in the UK will pick it up and force it higher on Monday.

YELL posts reassuring results and expands into Spain and Latin America

22 May2007 - 10:30

YELL posts reassuring results and good forecast future growth

Yell has announced higher revenues and a rise in full-year pretax profit and adjusted EBITDA, due to rapid growth in its online businesses in the UK and the US.

Pretax profit was £317.4 m to March 31, 2007 compared with £248 m. Adjusted EBITDA rose from £502.9 m to £677.5 m and revenue rose 28% to £2.08 bln.

Adjusted profit after tax and minority interests also increased 18.4% to £276.6 m. According to John Davis the CFO "These results are in line with expectations and continue to demonstrate Yell's strong financial characteristics including good growth, high margins and strong cash generation."

UK revenue increased 3%, US revenue grew 10% to 1.01 bln The company is confident that it will ensure further growth in 2008 and proposed a final dividend of 11.4 pence, which means the total dividend for the year is 17.1 pence, i.e. an 11.8% compared to last year.

The CEO John Condron said Yell is well-placed to buy some of the smaller independent firms that might find the competition more painful. In an interview with Reuters he said "We're now in 47 states... we have the largest footprint in the United States and we need to leverage that asset .... We will continue to mop up some of these smaller companies as long as the multiple is accretive to us." Yell has also been expanding in Spain and Latin America, with margins at Yell Publicidad set to rise to 37% this fiscal year compared with 34% last year.

Condron dismissed speculation that it might be a takeover target. "We have not had any approaches. " Analysts however reckon Yell is still a possible bid target following its hefty slump after last month's profit warning.

Merrill Lynch said the results were 'reasssuring' while Goldman Sachs say the stock is trading at 11.6 times forecast earnings for 2008 compared with its peers on 14 times and a wider sector on 16 times

All in all a bit of a surprise given the recent profits warning, but reassuring given that some were expecting a lot worse and a further fall in the share price. Hopefully the share price will start to seriously recover back towards the 600p from whence it fell, at the moment it is at 505p, no doubt there will be media interviews from the company and also plenty of articles in the financial press, so I'll be hanging on to mine (bought at 500p) and maybe buying some more :-).

1-year chart shows the hefty drop last month

Really Useful Free Stockmarket Charting & Technical Analysis Sites

21 May 2007 - 14:48

Really Useful Charting Sites

I thought it would be useful to have a list of charting and technical analysis sites and/or pages for future reference, all in one place, so I scoured the web and came up with the following which I refer to from time to time - here they are, in no particular order. Most of them are on sites which contain a lot more information than just the page I have pasted here. They are all free. You could no doubt spend several lifetimes reading up on charting, but that is hardly the purpose.

http://www.traderslog.com/trading-partial-declines-rises.htm -
System for spotting breakouts (claimed >70% accuracy)
http://www.bollingerbands.com/services/bb/ - Free Tutorial on Bollinger Bands
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/articles/edu/support-resistance.html
Basic Support and Resistance Levels
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/articles/traders/cardwell.html RSI Indicators
http://www.traderslog.com/trading-rules.htm Trading Rules for Modern Traders
http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/tcbreak.htm Breakout Trading + Lots More Articles
http://www.cerescapital.net/Learn.html A Load of Charting Stuff
http://www.rockwelltrading.com Seven Costly Mistakes
http://www.traderslog.com/John-Murphy-Interview.htm Interview with Top Trader
http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/200609.html Top 10 Chart Patterns
http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/ADX-indicator.html ADX Indicator
http://www.traderslog.com/profitable-trading-system.htm Develop Profitable Trading System
http://www.wallstreettape.com/tutorials/ta Charting Tutorials
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/docs/candlestick_primer.pdf Candlestick Tutorial - PDF
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Williams%25R.html
Is a Stock Overbought or Oversold ?
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/ParabolicSAR.html Parabolic SAR
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/indicators.htm How to Use Indicators
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_trends.htm How to Identify Trends
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/point_and_figure.htm Point & Figure Charts
http://thepatternsite.com Trading Patterns
http://www.traderslog.com/candle-charting-basics.htm - Japanese Candlestick Basics

Stocks to Watch Next Week - DDT - TAN (Tanfield Group)

20 May 2007 - 21:14

Some Stocks to Watch for the Coming Week

Dimension Data - DDT - they are close to breaking up through resistance and I picked some up on Friday afternoon, so am quite pleased they have been tipped in the Sunday Telegraph

After dropping along with other tech stocks, they have fallen from 580p in March 2000. They have recovered since bottoming out and are now just 53p. According to the Telegraph they are worth a second look. Their client list includes heavyweights such as Google, BMW, and Pfizer. Dimension Data also recently posted better than expected interim results with earnings increasing by 50% and improved profit margins. "Alongside a compelling case in the figures, the firm is also growing internationally, with ventures in Africa and Australia proving a success so far. A buy for investors."

Hopefully they will be a good long-term buy.




Second on my watch list is Tanfield Group (TAN) which I mentioned in a previous post. They make zero-emission electric trucks. The chart also looks interesting



and they have just been extensively covered in a broker's note from Morgan Stanley dated 14th May http://www.dccs.co.uk/shares/TANFIELD_NOTE_MORGANSTANLEY%5b1%5d%5b1%5d.pdf

The Sunday Times says Northumbrian Water shares are cheap at 324¾p. The sector has real potential over the coming years plus the company could attract bidders and a possible 25% premium to its share price. The Competition Commission's recently approved the merger of Mid Kent Water and South East Water which has given rise to the hope that there will be a number of similar mergers. Northumbrian Water has also seen a 17% rise in interim profits and full year figures are expected to be good next month. The group has also secured a Government contract to run Kielder Water, the largest reservoir in Britain. The company's prospects are good and there is the bonus of a possible takeover or meger.

FTSE finishes higher - Monstermob sharp rise at end of day

17 May 2007 - 16:31

FTSE managed to drag itself back to 20 up. DOW still negative at down 9.

On the UK markets Monstermob (MOB) put on a sudden spurt at the end of the day, up nearly 10%. I can't see why other than people are expecting good results in the next few weeks. Who or what are Monstermob? From their website "MonsterMob is the UK's best selling mobile content brand... MonsterMob is now developing and delivering unique mobile content including video on demand, interactive communities, real-music ring tones, high res personalisable graphics and superior java games to provide effective differentiation for service providers, retailers and handset distributors. "

9-month chart



3-month chart




From looking at their two websites (monstermob.com and monstermobgroup.plc.uk) I wasn't too impressed, it seems to me to be a media-type company that could do with a makeover - so maybe that's what they will be getting and why the price has suddenly moved up.

FTSE down ! DOW down - Vedanta up for grabs

17 May 2007 - 15:10

The FTSE was up slightly but given profit-taking in the US the FTSE decided 10 points up was way too much after yesterday's record high in the US (not in the UK) so the FTSe os now down yet again - DOW down 30 as investors lock in profits after yesterday's record close. Although if recent trends continue it will start down then recover during the day.

[Update : FTSE now up 5 - DOW coming back already - it just won't go down !] S&P 15 points away from all-time high.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be addressing a Chicago Fed conference on banking and commerce in a few minutes time, so no doubt that will send the markets down too.

Shares in JC Penney rose 2.6% to 77.65 $ in pre-market trading after it raised its profit outlook and strong 1st quarter results, bucking the retail trend, currently up 5%

In the UK, aAccording to the Daily Telegraph, the Chairman of mining company Vedanta Resources (VED), has said that a takeover of the company is a long-term possibility, shares rose to 1442p this monring but have since fallen back.

SLN keeps on ticking up as we await news re. the various rumours that are swirling around (see yesterday's post) .

Another possible bid target is credit information group Experian it rose to 600p as traders claimed it could be taken over by US peer Acxiom Corp for $3bn.

In the UK we are looing forward to the 'new' Prime Minister (haha) Gordon Brown, who has been in charge of the economy for the last ten years, but now is saying he will be making lots of improvements! Why do we need improvements after he has been in charge since 1997 and why does he think he is capable of bring them about God only knows? I foresee a protracted period of 'blame Tony' even though Brown was in charge if the economy.

DOW falls back from highs - rumours around SLN (Silence Therapeutics)

16 May 2007 - 15:52

DOW has just turned positive again after being negative after opening higher, so slightly volatile. FTSE down again (hardly a surprise).

In the UK there are plenty of rumours swirling around SLN (silence Therapeutics) a company I have mentioned a few times before. Rumours are that there is a big licence deal due within days, target share price of 150 - 160p is being bandied about (it is 114p at the moment) and that there could also be a bid or several more licence deals before the end of the summer with a price of 250p being mentioned. The price has certainly been very strong lately and the MMs are finding it hard to move the price down. It has just gone positive on the day after being negative earlier on. So make of all that what you will.

For further info. on SLN (previously SR Pharma) have a look here : http://www.sharescity.com/2007/04/sr-pharma-to-change-name-to-silence.html

Green Shares Rise in London

15 May 2007 - 02:21

Just a quick late night update

DOW hits new all-time high - FTSE falls again ! ( how many times is that now>)

ITM recovered slightly on Monday thanks to interest in green companies


"Shares in "green" companies rose on Monday after press reports on the urgent need for action on climate change and that Gordon Brown intends to create five eco towns, analysts and traders said."

Green companies include those involved in renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, or those who reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as fuel cell developers.

Shares in Climate Exchange , which runs Europe's main exchange for trading credits for reducing carbon gas emissions, rose 3.6 percent to hit an all-time high of 1605 pence.At the same time, the price of carbon credits for delivery in December 2008 -- as part of the European Union allowances programme -- rose to a 10-month high. Companies get one credit when they reduce carbon emissions by one tonne. They can then trade the credits for profit.Shares in Climate Exchange have more than tripled in five months.Other companies viewed as important in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including fuel cell makers, also gained.

Ceres Power , which is developing household boilers that also produce electricity from the gas they use to create heat, rose 3.8 percent."On Ceres I've also been told there is going to be a really good announcement, and it might be news of that leaking out," added Bunce, who had not heard details of what the news could be. His firm represents Ceramic Fuel Cells , which is targeting a different part of the fuel cell market.

Shares in ITM Power , which wants to replace petrol cars with hydrogen using fuel cells it is developing, also rose 7.4 percent.The stock is volatile because there are a large number of contracts-for-difference trades as some investors bet the company's technology could be a success and its shares soar while others bet it could fail and the stock collapse.

Shares in wind turbine maker and wind farm developer Clipper Windpower also rose 2% .

http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=748412007

Weekend Newspaper Share Information

13 May 2007 - 18:05

Midas in the Mail on Sunday says:
* Buy Renold at 131p - Buy Allergy Therapeutics at 111.25p

Allergy Therapeutics floated in 2004 and is already generating profits via its current treatments. It is also has a radical hay fever treatment the Pollinex Quattro Ragweed injection in an advanced stage of development, which could provide a remedy.

Questor in the Daily Telegraph says buy Dimension Data (DDT) and Autonomy (AU.)

Personally I find Autonomy a little bit risky at the moment following the share placing at 725p.

DDT looks interesting though, I've been watching it for a while and if it can get through the resistance round about 53p I'll take a closer look.



YELL still looks interesting, Google is rumoured to be taking a look with a price of 650p mentioned.

SLN might drop a bit on Monday morning, it was given as a buy in the Daily Mail but a sell in the Telegraph, the market manipulators might use the confusion to drop the price early Monday morning, if they don't I would take that as a strong signal.

TNG (Tangent Communications) was tipped as a buy in the Guardian as a result of the new 'homebuyers packs' in the UK. Tangent recently acquired Ravensworth. Ravensworth is a company which provides software to enable estate agents to provide brochures of property particulars to homebuyers, but it has also been involved in trials of home information packs and "is likely to see business jump when they are introduced". Tangent reports full-year results on Wednesday when it will no doubt give further details, so I for one will wait until then as I don't like holding a company's shares when results are due.

Markets down - Vividas Streaming Video Tie-Up with Sony (Scoop!)

10 May 2007 - 19:10

DOW falls over 100 points (about time too?) FTSE falls again - Interest Rates Rise in the UK - Vividas Sign Streaming Video Contract (who?) with Sony (sshh it's supposed to be a secret)

Weakness from sectors having the biggest run in recent weeks and in retail sector, transports and energy, have finally forced the DOW to have a down day (so far) which may be not such a bad thing

In the UK the FTSE fell again, the excuse this time being interest rate rises.

Takeover news continues to dominate the market however and make things slightly more interesting trying to guess where the next one will be (today its was FP. see below). Real estate giant Hammerson rose 105p to £16.73 on reports that that private equity group KKR or US Vornado Realty Trust was interested – talk of £19.00 a share bid.

According to Simon Denham of Capital Spreads "Dealers are likely to continue to buy every stock on the mere rumour of interest … The prices being paid … are so far above current levels that it seems almost worth having a small punt in virtually every UK FTSE 100 stock "

But yesterday’s favourites were put back on the shelf today Rio Tinto, fell 121p to £35.39. Vedanta fell 48p to £13.72 and Antofagasta, which was downgraded by ABN Amro yesterday, fell another 22p to 541p.

Yell rose 12.5p to 497.5p on vague private equity talk it got up as high as 507p at one point, as I’ve got some let us hope that the rumours prove to be true, certainly volume was pretty high. At about 3.30 Friends Provident suddenly woke up, pity I didn’t notice till it was too late. The share price sped up 16.25p to 210p. Rumour has it that the French insurance company Axa may be interested. I almost bought in but decided to keep my powder dry, but volume was high towards the end of the day.

Tate & Lyle is in talks to sell half its European starch and sweetener business to France's Syral for £200m-£220m, and the shares rose as a consquence.. Analysts were disappointed at the price, and they would also have preferred for the company to sell the whole business. But according to ABN Amro there are a number of benefits from selling just half and as aresult they have raised their target price from 650p to 725p and repeated their ‘buy’ rating.

Evolution Securities also thinks Tate is undervalued. And they have put a target price of 820p on it.

Vanco a UK telecoms group added 6.25p to 479.5p after announcing a 4 year preferred supplier deal with Deutsche Telekom. Killik & Co and Dresdner Kleinwort repeated their buy ratings, DK has a price target of 575p. Evil Knievel on the other hand is still shorting it.

Vividas Group

In the small cap sector Vividas Group PLC (VDS) announced it has signed its largest ever annual contract with one of the 'top three major film studios in the US', to stream all trailers from their 2007 film release schedule and rose 15% as a result. No financial details were given. Trailers will be streamed using the company's VivStream Campaign, studios will thus be able to stream movies in high definition quality at a much lower bandwidth. The deal is supposed to be confidential but I can reveal that it is with Sony. Why can I reveal this ? Am I mad? Am I a foolish fellow? Am I an ace reporter ? No, the reason I can reveal it is that it has already been revealed by Vividas itself, here : http://www.vividas.com/press/files/sonypressreleasemaygmfinal.pdf - the clue is in the File Name ! Confidentiality not too impressive but no doubt their streaming video technology is better.

Video over the Internet is becoming increasingly important so I will be keeping an eye on Vividas http://www.vividas.com/index.php - there is also the possibility that it will become a takeover target at some point in the future (you heard it here first !).

"Vividas is a video streaming technology company - their products enable media owners to distribute secure video content over the web in HD that play without the need to stop and buffer and without the need to download a player to a computer's hard drive. "

The chart shows some long-term resistance at 93p-ish but long-term it seems like it's got good prospects.

You can see the excellent quality of their video streaming here : http://www1.visitmelbourne.com.au/displayObject.cfm/ObjectID.0001D480-B585-1F03-94F080C476A903B7/lk.Centre1_1/pg.VMelbourne/vvt.vhtml

DOW at record high FTSE falls again - YELL up 4% on rumours

10 May 2007 - 12:50

FTSE down again 28 points, after DOW recovery yesterday which finished at new all-time high yet again

The FTSE continues its strange reluctance to follow the DOW, except when it goes down

Bank of England raises rates by o.25% to 5.5% - ECB leaves rates unchanged at 3.75%

House prices in the UK rose 0.9% last month according to the Halifax - pity I haven't got an extra one to sell.

YELL has moved up 4% today on rumours that private equity might be looking at a takeover, all very vague rumours at the moment and YELL has made 'no comment' but in the present climate and given the recent slump in its price YELL could well be on somebody's shopping list. Good news for me as I picked up a few last week.

ITM still looking a bit poorly, but I'm confident of a rapid recovery! SLN looking strong so I bought back in (shouldn't have sold in the first place).

III had bumper profits and announced share buyback plans, it rose 28p rise to £11.97p at one point but has now dropped back to 1176p, another one on the watch list if it falls back further over the next few days.

Ridge Mining's chart (RDG) is looking interesting seems to be near a breakout (according to some)



BARC is also starting to look interesting again back down at 713p - I am tempted but will hang on till the US opens at least to see which way the wind is blowing.

DOW at new all-time high FTSE asleep

9 May 2007 - 22:03

DOW up 53 at yet another record high, FTSE fannied about again but apparently it was held back by the large number of companies that went ex-dividend.

DOW up again on mild FED comments. The FED didn't say anything much but the market thought that was OK and so rallied 53 points. Basically the economy
is slowing but still growing, inflation comments were unchanged, there is a lot of M&A speculation and a lot of stock buy-backs.

The S&P 500 is 15 points away from the historic high of 1527.

My recent punt into ITM turned pear-shaped today as profit-takers and swing-traders, God and various unkown elementals moved in to cause me to lose money. I am hanging on 'cause I think it should be going up (haha - maybe it will bounce back tomorrow - but down 7% today is not what I wanted to see).

Sage (SGE) results were not too hot but the outlook was upbeat and shares fell 10¾p to 257½p as a result, mainly due to concerns about growth in the US. Pre-tax profits were up 12% to £121.8m for the 6 months to 31 March.
As I have had them on my radar for some time I might take a closer look.



Along with Autonomy which fell back a bit today

ITM (fuel cells and electrolysers) rises on rumours in the FT of tie-up with Solar World

8 May 2007 - 15:45

My latest favourite, fuel cell and electrolyser producer, ITM got a mention in the Financial Times over the weekend to explain why it was up late on Friday afternoon and a target price of 600p !

"ITM Power gained 5.8 per cent to 155p amid talk of a possible tie-up with Solar World, the German solar power company." ITM makes fuel cells and electrolysers, which convert water into hydrogen and which can be powered using solar power. Westhall Capital set a target of 600p, which could be good news as the price is 155p at the moment.

It seems like the price shot up early on due to the mention in the FT, then fell back during the day as the MMs made the most of the situation, but it seems to be recovering again as we get closer to the close and has just turned positive again. It is worth noting that, given the importance of the environmental agenda at the moment and for the foreseeable future, ITM has managed to achieve significant reductions in electrolyser costs.

From the ITM website :

Fuel Cells, via an electrochemical process, convert hydrogen and oxygen into electricity and water. ITM is also developing fuel cells which derive their power from liquids which contain the required oxygen and hydrogen. There are a number of fuel cell types of which the PEM (proton-exchange membrane) fuel cell is widely regarded as the most practical technology for many applications.

An electrolyser converts water and electricity into hydrogen and oxygen. These gases can be used as fuel for combustion engines, fuel cells, heating and conventional electricity generation. Existing electrolysers cost in the region of $2,000/ kW and the US Department of Energy 2010 target is $300/kW for an electrolyser stack. ITM Power has identified low cost electrolysers as a vital component to replace hydrocarbon fuels with hydrogen. ITM has achieved costs as low as $164 / per kW.

To see a range of videos that explain what ITM do click here : ITMVideos

600p would be nice ! But it is looking good for a rise anyway even if it doesn't get that high quite yet.

FTSE falls back but Autonomy still in favour

8 May 2007 - 11:40

Markets down on profit-taking and shorting (allegedly)

FTSE and Eurpean markets down, despite the new high on the DOW, shorter are at work apparently, but according to Roger Nightingale they will be significantly higher by the end of the year. Hooray. (Let's hope he's right). He also thinks RBS will win takeover of ABN Amro, and as a result Barclays could be taken over and Elissa Bayer, another expert, agrees with him.

Another stock rumoured to be a takeover target is William Morrison supermarket chain, which was the biggest riser in the FTSE100, at 341.75p, up 12p, after reports in the weekend press that several private equity groups are taking an interest. Evolution Securities repeated its 'add' recommendation and raised its target price to 340p from 315p.

Autonomy (AU.) also rose again (why didn't I buy them when I had intended?), they were up at 802.5p at one point, as Goldman Sachs raised its target price from 800p to 900p following recent results. Also Oracle and Symantec have adopted Autonomy's enterprise infrastructure software. Autonomy already has 300 OEM partners and more are expected.

My recent punts are mixed, ITM is up slightly, YELL is down slightly - but I remain supremely confident! SLN has just turned down, I am hoping for a fall back under 100p as I sold at 101p and have been dismayed to continue upwards without me.

S&P topping out? Tips for WGN,SPT,Galleon,Connaught

5 May 2007 - 15:35

Charts

Tom Hougaard from City Index is not convinced that the uptrend will continue in the markets. He thinks we are in a "topping pattern" on the S&P 500 that should top out in the next 2 - 3 weeks. He has just gone short on the FTSE100 for a short-term trade.

It does seem a little likely that the markets (particularly the US) can't keep going up for ever, this is the longest winning streak since 1929 apparently, so it seems probable that they will pull back at some point. But apart from that I can't say I've been particularly impressed with Tom Hougaard's ability to predict market movements, I seem to remember him being bearish back in September.

According to a recent survey London is the most expensive city in the world. That won't come as any surprise to people who live there. Everything in the UK seems to be 25% more expensive than in France and 50% more expensive than in the US (even before the dollar became so cheap), despite the fact that wages for the general populace are lower and you also get taxed just for using your car, which basically keeps people with no money off the roads so rich people who couldn't care less can drive around at their ease. A rather strange policy for a socialist Mayor to have implemented.


Stocks
Another tip for WGN (see previous posts) this time in the FT.



Also according to the FT, BT. is about to announce a £2 billion share buy-back.

The Times says keep an eye on Galleon.
Daily Telegraph says buy Connaught and there is another tip for Spirent (SPT) (see previous posts) which is rather annoying as I almost bought them on Friday and it is quite possible they will now shoot up early Tuesday morning (we are closed on Monday in the UK)
BHP Billiton mentioned as possible takeover candidate in the Times and the Independent

DOW up FTSE up YAHOO up Reuters up - tips for 3 shares SGE, HSBC, ITV

4 May 2007 - 16:32

Manoj Ladwa just been on TV with 3 tips :-

1. SGE - around 265p at the moment - says there has been a lot of volume lately and rumours of a takeover by Microsoft, although as Microsoft are looking at Yahoo it seems odd to me that would also be looking at SGE, however, charts are looking good anyway. RNS from SGE today :- "The Company has been informed that Paul Harrison, Group Finance Director of the Company, has been appointed as a non-executive director of Hays plc with effect from 8 May 2007." Make of that what you will.
2. HSBC (code HSBA) charts also looking good, been lagging behind other bansk, and a couple of Saudi investors have taken large stakes - 740p at the moment but could go to 800p. I just sold at 748p but I might buy back in.
3. ITV has just moved up out of trading range. it is at 120p now, he says try and buy in around 115p if it falls back, but he expects it to go to 140p at some point. It could have risen also because of the general media frenzy caused by Reuters, so maybe it will fall back before going up. Plus the FTSE has been up 3 days in a row and may need a rest!

Personally I have got myself some ITM and YELL. YELL because it has fallen a lot and looked like it was starting to receover, but of course as soon as I bought them they fell back !

ITM was looking strong at the end of the day . They are into fuel cells and there may be some news on the way.

Philips to market electricity over radio waves in collaboration with Powercast

4 May 2007 - 14:57

Electricity Can Be Beamed Over Radio Waves

Powercast has invented an amazing device that can beam electricity over radio waves to allow you to recharge batteries without the need for any wires. You just plug the transmitter into an electric socket and the radio waves that are transmitted are converted into electricity by the receiver incorporated in your equipment. At the moment it only works with small batteries such as in cell phones and medical implants, but the implications and potential uses are huge.

At the moment you can't buy Powercast stock because it's a private company, but you can buy Philips stock and Philips is to be the first company to market the devices in late 2007.

For more information on the technology of the device and how it works see TechNews

Microsoft Yahoo Merger ? Reuters takeover + plans for a financial 'MySpace' - Broker Recommendations

4 May 2007 - 12:00

FTSE up 56 - it's been up 3 days in a row, which is a minor miracle! Back at its highest level since September 2000. Hong Kong at new all-time high.

Takeovers and takeover rumours continue to fly

• Microsoft and Yahoo may re-open talks on a merger, Microsoft needs to take on Google. Yahoo is worth around $50 billion according to Wall Street.
• NewsCorp bid for Dow Jones.
• Bid for Reuters possibly from Thomsons - RTR is up 25% today
• EMI
• ABN Amro
• Hanson
• Tesco may be looking at Australian retailer Coles
• Altadis has received a bid approach at 50 Euros a share

Close Brothers (CBG) look cheap according to two experts on CNBC

In another development Reuters intend developing a financial MySpace based around its 70,000 subscribers to its messaging service. CEO Tom Glocer said "You will see us, later in the year, launch a version of MySpace for the financial services community. It won't have the latest hot videos and the 'why I am into Metallica and the Arctic Monkeys' blogs. Instead we are going to give our financial services users the ability to post their research or if they are traders, their trading models." It will be restricted to Reuters subscribers initially. Apparently Reuters already have one of their journalists embedded in Second Life where he[?] reports on events in the virtual world. Maybe I should revive my Second Life account to see if I can't get some stock tips?

Broker Recommendations

• Collins Stewart says buy British Energy with a 624p price target
• Numis upgrades Antofagasta to buy from add with a 654p target .
• SG Securities says buy Kingfisher (KGF) with a 354p target
• Panmure Gordon says buy T Clarke with 255p target.
• + Buy Goldenport with 410p target.
• + Buy brewer Greene King with £12 target.
• + Buy Interserve with a 600p target

UK experts on CNBC also worried that market is looking a bit toppy. I guess at some point the DOW has got to start going up, but it is only a feww weeks ago that people were woried we were heading for a major correction/bear market ! It would be nice to know who really knows what's going on and who controls the markets!

Another record high on the DOW - FTSE also up - Spirent looks interesting

3 May 2007 - 20:04

US markets up again, DOW up 29 at another record closing high, S&P up 6 now over 1500, highest level since september 2000, NASDAQ at 6 year high this is the longest rising streak since 1929, quite amazing really. You feel they've got to pull back at some time?

Performance catching up with earnings they say.

In the UK, ABN AMRO shares rose 1.6% as a Dutch court ruled the bank must freeze its $21 billion sale of LaSalle to Bank of America. Barclays (BARC) rose 4% as a result, as people thought this would put an end to Barclay's bid, but Barclay's have themselves said this is not the case, they might still go ahead with the bid.

"Barclays is continuing to pursue its recommended merger with ABN AMRO which offers significant value to shareholders," it said.

So maybe it will fall back again tomorrow.

IBM says it has a groundbreaking new chip with tiny nano- holes in it which is said to provide far better performance.

SLN continues to tick upwards, which is a pity as I sold mine yesterday in the hope that they would fall back a bit.

ARM is looking strong, I wanted to buy in at lower prices but they moved back up too quickly, maybe they will pull back tomorrow?

There are rumours Reuters (RTR) could make a counterbid for Dow Jones.

ABN Amro has rated Spirent (SPT) a buy, raising it from hold, after news of the first phase of the group's strategic review. The broker has a target of 86p. The strategic review is far wider ranging than expected by the market.

7 year chart



1 year chart



There seems to be some resistance at 90p - another one to watch !

Juniper Networks - Business is Good and Getting Better

2 May 2007 - 15:51

Juniper Networks Buy Recommendation

A quick update as I'm sitting here doing nothing much. The guy from Stifel Nicolaus ( I didn't get his name) has just been on CNCB and recommended Juniper Networks as a buy.

What he said seemed to make a lot of sense, Juniper make routers to provide bandwidth and their business is good and getting better due to the explosion in video on the Internet, VOIP, sites such as Youtube and other video sites which are just going to spread and get bigger and also in particiular what he called the IPTV phenomenon. Companies such as Joost and the ITV in the UK, which will be making all its programs avaialble over the Internet

DOW powering up 84 at the moment even the FTSE has managed 65.

DOW Rises Again Despite Fear

2 May 2007 - 15:00

Major Highs are Defined by Euphoria Not Fear

A great quote! I've just been watching CNBC, where Mark Arbeter, the Chief Technical Strategist for Standard and Poor's, pointed out that there was a lot of fear in the markets and yet the DOW just keeps on rising. He then went on to say that when the markets were rising through the nineties there was also a lot of fear, until the bears finally capitulated in 1999 and early 2000 and the markets, particularly the NASDAQ went into the stratosphere. He pointed out that "major highs are defined by euphoria not by fear" so as long as there is fear around this is not a bad thing it's when the fear turns into euphoria, like we had back in early 2000, that the market will be at the top.

Back in January 2006 he also said that he expected the S&P 500 to fall 10% to 20% in 2006, saying "We will have a major correction, if not a bear market". Well he was right about the major correction.

Robert Levitt is concerned about inflation but he thinks it will be slow, starting in food prices and energy. He is still optimistc about stocks though. French election could be positive for stocks if Sarkozy wins (next Sunday and he is favourite at the moment) this could lead to a boom in Europe.

DOW up 60 NASDAQ up 17 S&P up 7 FTSE up 53 !

DOW sets another intraday record. The big story is of course NewsCorp trying to take over Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal, one analyst said Dow Jones wanted $120 a share!

Mastercard is making a pile of money - most of it from me I think.

Stocks are moving higher due to better earnings all round.

On the UK stocks front, my recent favourite SLN (Silence Therapeutics) has moved up 6%, as I mentioned before a major pharmaceuticals company is rumoured to be taking a stake between 90 and 110p (102p today), so I have sold my stake as I think (hope) it has got ahead of itself and will fall back to the mid 90s. We shall see if I did the right thing.

My other punt HSBC is also up and has finally got over 930p, it's been like watching paint dry and I may sell up soon as it is just as likely to fall back tomorrow, the FTSE doesn't like going up 2 days in a row.

At the moment everyone is waiting for the oil inventory data, so I will join them.

NewsCorp bid for Dow Jones - WNG buy recommendation

1 May 2007 - 16:23

FTSE down 33 (surprise) DOW up 25 (although down from highs) - Air-condiiton Buy Recommendation

NewsCorp makes unsolicited $60/share offer for Dow Jones

Two UK buy recommendations just given on CNBC

• Worthington Nicholls Group (WNG)
• Aberdeen Asset Mgmt (ADN)

WNG is an air-conditioning company on the AIM in London. New regulations regarding ozone mean that people are having to take out their old air-conditioing units and fit new ones. Today they issued a statement saying they have raised £20 m, before expenses, via an institutional placing of 11.76 m shares at 170p each, and that they have acquired three companies.

The funds will act as the working capital needed to ensure continued organic expansion in the UK and Europe and also for more acquisitions.

CEO Mark Worthington sold 2 m shares at 170p to satisfy institutional demand.

They also acquired Woods Environmental Group Ltd, Euro Property Services London Ltd (EPS) and Classic Interiors Contractors Ltd at a total cost of approx. £6 m in cash and shares.

They were recommended by Midas on 15 April ( a well-known fincnaial journalist here in the UK) as follows "New EU regulations dictate that most air conditioning units in the UK must be replaced with more environmentally friendly systems by the end of 2014. Independent estimates indicate that £7bn of replacement equipment will be needed and much of the work will take place over the next four or five years."

An impressive chart but people appear confident it has further to go.

FTSE down - More Evil Knievel Tips - DOW futures up

1 May 2007 - 12:04

FTSE down 29 DOW futures up

FTSE down again although that might change if the DOW moves up again. Most of Europe closed for May Day. Venezuela moves out of World Bank and also it turns out they may have more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. They are also doing big deals with the Chinese as the US companies pull out or are booted out.

Evil Knievel has spoken again - he got it right on Sainsbury's so maybe he does know something after all. His latest buy tips are :-

• Cenes (CEN) he says he has received a note from his man in the biolmolecules [? is that a word] world who says they are cheap.
• Medical Marketing (MMG).
• Ambrian Capital (AMBR) which he reckons will cease to be an independent investment bank, as its new Chinese investors will "make a move at some stage". He first invested when they were 3.875p, they are now 71.25p.
• Media Corporation (MDC).

Elsewhere Petrel Resources (PET) has finally signed its long-awaited deal with the Jordanian government to dig holes in the desert, where they expect to find a lot of oil swilling about, production is not expected to start till late 2008 at the earliest. Price up as a result. They are still awaiting news from the Iraqi parliament too about the all-important hydrocarbon law.

ARM has fallen back, to a more palatable level, so I did well to wait.

SLN (Silence Therapeutics- formerly SPA) is still looking strong as news of the stake by a large pharmaceutical company is awaited.

Autonomy (AU.) (see previous post re. free shares in Blinkx for existing shareholders) was a strong gainer on news that it has signed a multi-million pound contract to supply data to the UK Ministry of Defence. The brokerage firm Seymour Pierce reiterated its 'buy' recommendation.

Have a good day !