Newspaper and Magazine Share Tips and Rumours

31 August 2007 - 11:22

Newspaper and Magazine Share Tips

INVESTORS CHRONICLE

Tips:
Buy – Addax Petroleum (AXC), Hardy Underwriting (HDU), Griffin Mining (GFM), Education Development International (EDD), Trading Emissions (TRE)
Sell – Corporate Services (CSV).

Tip Updates:
Buy – Shire (SHP), Leyshon Resources (LRL), Media surface (MSR)
High Enough – Scisys (SSY)
Sell – Avis Europe (AVE), Sci Entertainment (SEG).


THE TIMES

Tempus Column:
Diageo (DGE) – Buy
RCG Holdings (RCG) – Long-term hold
Venture production (VPC) – Buy.

Tiddler to Watch:
Vislink (VLK).

Other news:
Vitec (VTC) interims may surprise on Monday, thought to have £170-million cash, available for acquisitions

DAILY TELEGRAPH

Questor Column:
Diageo (DGE) – Hold
Serco (SRP) - Buy.


Other news:

BG (BG) rises as takeover talk resumes.


INDEPENDENT
Investment :
BBA Aviation (BBA) – Buy
Hunting (HTG) - Buy.

Other news:
BG Group (BG) up on talks of Chinese suitor.

DAILY MAIL

Other news:
Punters have taken a liking to Churchill Mining (CHL)
Cycladic has its eye on Evolution (EVG).

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
Vislink (VLK) rumoured to be considering more acquisitions in the US.

Oher news:
DSG (DSGI): Christmas bonanza in store.

Worms in Chinese Chocolates

31 August 2007 - 02:00

Worms and Maggots in Chinese Chocolate

People in South Korea have been disgusted to find worms, maggots and moths in their favourite chocolates from China.

The chocolates were made in China as an imitation of a famous international brand of chocolates, that look like a rock and whose name begings with F.

The maggots were seen wriggling in tiny holes in the chocolate, they had even manage dto finish off some of the chocolate rocks completely (very fattening!).

A professor at Eulji University, said the larvae were of Plodia Interpun : "It seems to be seriously contaminated during the manufacturing process since the larvae of Plodia Interpun were found."

One consumer was told by the manufacturers to take th echocolates back to China if he wanted compensation.

After contaminated toothpaste, paint on children’s toys and bibs with lead in it, cars that are destroyed on impact Chinese manufacturing is fast losing all credibility.

Toothpaste, sweets, tyres and medicine exported from China in recent months have been found to be faulty.

Although, some people have also found worms in a local Korean-made brand of chocolate. They don’t say if the worms are edible or not though.

chinese chocolate
china worms maggots

Buy Low Sell High Make Money - Free Trial Offer

30 August 2007 - 22:20

Buy Low and Sell High

Buy low sell high, that's all you need to do to make money on the stockmarket. All you've got to do is follow the system devised by Benjamin Graham and made available now by Philip Durell of Inside Value. If you sign up for the 30-day free trial of Invest Value you get access to the 'discounted cash flow calculator', which tells you how much a company is worth today based on the amount of cash it will generate. This allows you to find companies which are on offer at cheaper than what they are actually worth.

I haven't signed up for the free offer. It is recommended by The Motley Fool but it will require you to enter your credit card details. For further information take at look at the Motley Fool description of what is on offer How-to-Buy-Low-and-Sell-High

buy low sell high
motley fool
benjamin graham
philip durell
discounted cash flow calculator

Magazine and Newspaper Share Tips

30 August 2007 - 11:25

Newspaper and Magazine Share Tips

Firstly don't forget to check out Shares magazine's offer of 4 weeks free subscription, no strings attached - http://www.sharescity.com/2007/08/shares-magazine-free-subscription-offer.html


SHARES MAGAZINE

Sell - Cadbury (CBRY).
Buy – Unilever (ULVR).

Plays Update:
Buy - Education Development (EDD), Jacques Vert (JQV).

Chartist:
Buy – Sondex (SDX), Autonomy (AU.), Britvic (BVIC), Guinness Peat (GPG), Galiform (GFRM), JJB Sports (JJB), Detica (DCA), Premier Foods (PFD).

Index Plays:
Sell – FTSE-100.

Short-term plays:
Buy – 3i Group (III), Carphone Warehouse (CPW).
Sell BAT’s (BATS).


THE TIMES
Tempus Column:
Segro (SGRO) – Hold.
Whitbread (WTB) – Hold.
PartyGaming (PRTY) - High-risk buy for the brave

Tiddler :
Clipper Ventures (CLV).

Other news:

Intercede (IGP) rumoured to have signed a £500,000 contract.

FINANCIAL TIMES
Lex :
Six months after crisis at QWIL, another Cheyne Capital sponsored listed vehicle is in deep doo doo.
Asian subprime – Asian banks are left holding securities backed by US subprime mortgages

Other news:
PartyGaming (PRTY) needs US DoJ settlement.
Segro (SGRO) European business outshines UK .
Aricom (TIO) concerns ‘overdone’.
Robert Walters (RWA) up, on bet on results.

DAILY TELEGRAPH

Questor:
LogicaCMG (LOG) – Hold.
G4S (GFS) – Hold.

Other news:
PartyGaming (PRTY) fighting back after US ban on online gambling . (I wonder why they did that ?)

DAILY MAIL

Buy Boot (Henry Boot (BHY)).

Managers buy up stake in Standard Life (SL.).

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
Petrel Resources (PET) rises on speculation that some major cos. are looking to tap in to Iraq’s vast black gold potential.

Further news:
Bright future predicted at Standard Life (SL.).

Independent
Investment :
Lonmin (LMI) – Sell.
Johnston Press (JPR) – Hold.
Irish Life & Permanent (IPM) - Buy.

OTHER NEWS
Rebound despite fresh subprime fears.
Liquidity crisis could lead to a $43-billion ‘firesale’.

The Dow gained 247.44-points, to close at 13289.29, the Nasdaq added 62.52 to 2563, while the S&P put on 31.40 to close at 1463.76.
Copper prices to remain volatile, says Antofagasta (ANTO).

shares magazine
share tips

Digital TV for a Tenner from Tesco

29 August 2007 - 20:45

Digital TV for a Tenner!

Tesco has launched the cheapest digital set-top box in the UK, costing just £10 ($20).
The digital TV box, which is made by Techwood, offers the standard 40 digital terrestrial TV channels which are free to view as well as numerous radio stations.

The small margins mean the product is loss leader, but Tesco says it is designed to help customers make the digital switchover, how nice of them, I had no idea Tesco was such a philanthropic organization !

By 2012, the analogue TV signal will be switched off in the UK and we will have to use digital TV services. The digital switchover will begin in the north-west of England in Whitehaven on October 17.

Once people have bought a a Freeview box there is nothing further to pay, except of course the licence fee, which we all pay here in the UK (if you have TV).

"We know that many of our customers aren't ready for the change … so to get them prepared for the switchover from analogue to digital, we're offering this digital TV technology at the lowest price ever," a Tesco spokesman said.

Ford Ennals, the CEP of Digital UK, the organization responsible for promoting digital TV said "We've seen the cheapest digital box go from £100 to £10 in just five years, and this is further proof that going digital needn't be expensive," said "We're now working with Tesco and the other supermarkets to help them provide switchover information in their stores."

The previous cheapest set-top box offered by Tesco was £19.99, the same as rivals Comet and Argos.

From a stockmarket point of view Tesco has suffered along with everyone else over the last couple of months, which is a little odd given that they are seen as a defensive stock.





tesco
digital tv
freeview

29 August 2007 - 14:45

Online Gaming Company Beats Expectations

PartyGaming surprised analysts by posting first-half revenues higher than the forecast $203.6m.

The main reason behind PartyGaming's better than expected performance was the expansion in casino games, with revenues more than trebling to $64.6m. Poker, which is still responsible for just over 60% of cash profits, had more modest growth, with revenues up 8% at PartyPoker.
In the last 6 months, PartyGaming has worked hard to to widen its customer base and the products on offer, in order to make up for its forced withdrawal from the US after it passed laws against online gambling, in a move many see as having nothing to do with the US dislike of gambling but a lot to do with its dislike of online gambling run by non-US companies.

PartyGaming now has poker operations in 13 languages, it has acquired two casino businesses, Empire Online and Intercontinental Online, and is develping its sport betting division.

The group will soon be opening an office in Asia, and is exploring the possibilities for forming alliances with larger gaming groups as a so-called "white label", branding its own platform and technology for use by other companies.

Numis has a forecast of full-year earnings per share of 2 cents (12.4 cents in 2006), which is expected to rise to 3.4 cents in 2008.

PartyGaming CEO Mitch Garber said:

"In the four weeks ended 26 August 2007, average gross daily revenue was $1,418,000, a 1% decrease over July, but reflecting the peak holiday period in Europe. In poker, new player sign-ups averaged 1,138 per day and there were on average 59,000 active players per day, generating average gross daily revenue of $854,000. In casino, average gross daily revenue was $501,000 per day while in sports betting, gross win per day was $56,000 per day. "

"Over the coming weeks and months we expect to announce a number of further important business alliances with leading companies around the world that will help us to promote and grow our business. While the important fourth quarter lies ahead, the Board remains confident about the Group's prospects for the full year."

PartyGaming's share price has fallen regularly since it peaked at over 160p a year ago but today it has risen 24% - perhaps the recovery is finally underway? There is also talk of consolidation within the sector.



2 month candlestick chart



partygaming

29 August 2007 - 13:30

FTSE Recovers from Early Losses

After starting the day down, following-on from Wallt Street and the Nikkei the FTSE has recovered to climb 0.3% to 6122, partly as a result of a recovery in financial stocks.

Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) is up 3% at 168.5p, Investec (INVP) is up 1.5% to 525p.

Banks have also been recovering somewhat, with Barclays rising 1.9 per cent to 600p. Rises are however still very small and wil no doubt all change if the US turns negative.

Good interim results from Whitbread, with strong like-for-like sales growth of 11.3% also lifted the markets.

Mining stocks are also helping keep the FTSE above water Antofagasta is currently up 2% to 697p on strong interim earnings growth. Xstrata is up 0.5% at 2840p. Anglo American was up 0.3 per cent at £27.55. BHP Billiton is up 1,6% at 1384p

Worries for the economy persist however as the FED said that problems in credit markets worldwide “might require a policy response”.

BHP Billitonis often cited as being the pick of the mining bunch and certainly its chart looks like a recovery could be underway.





Dow futures are indicating a 75 point higher opening.

ftse
dow futures

28 August 2007 - 17:15

Shares Magazine Free Subscription Offer

Shares magazine is offering a free 4-week subscription to its magazine. Shares magazine is one of the two best-known magazines in the UK dealing with the stockmarket for the private investor. The offer has no strings attached, they don't ask for a credit card number, you just put in an address and an e-mail address and off you go.

The magazine looks good too, like the actual print version, not just a page of grey and white text. So I highly recommend you have a look at it and I don't even get a commission.

For your free 4-month subscription have a look here Shares Magazine Free Subscription

shares magazine
free subscription
private investor
stockmarket

26 August 2007 - 12:15

Sunday Newspaper Share Tips

After the recent carnage people have been out bargain hunting some of the newspapers think they have found some, I will try and put up some charts later on, I'm a bit busy with the day job at the moment.

Sunday Telegraph

Balfour Beatty –Oriel Securities rate it a “high conviction buy”. Sunday Telegraph agrees (for the long-term)

Sell- Punch taverns
Buy- Legal & General
Buy on weakness - Hochchild Mining
Keep buying - Biffa

The Sunday Times

Ten bargains
Marks & Spencer – Michael Page – Charter – British Airways – Millennium & Copthorne – BP – William Morrison – Legal & General - Royal Bank of Scotland

Mail on Sunday

Midas
Buy - Jelf Group
Buy- Hat Pin – Buy

Merrill Lynch intends bringing two Russian property companies to London’s main market – it hopes this will prove to be the catalyst to revive the new listings market

Northern Trust will be outsourcing work to India, but says there will not be hundreds of British jobs lost

newspaper tips
share tips
midasd
british airways

24 August 2007 - 14:40

Really Useful Stock Traders Sites

I have been trying to put together a definitive list of stockmarket and investment news, information, real-time quotes, forex sites etc.... It was taking me a long time, but fortunately I no longer have to. I happened upon the following excellent site that's done it all already !

Day Traders

Don't let the 'forex' in the blog title fool you, the list is not just about forex, in fact it is very little about forex, it's about every sort of financial site and it is long and comprehensive. So check it out.

day traders
stock traders
share dealing
investing

Newspaper and Magazine Share Tips and Rumours

24 August 2007 - 10:32

NEWSPAPER AND MAGZINE SHARE TIPS AND RUMOURS

INVESTORS CHRONICLE
Tips:
Sell - Mitchells & Butlers (MAB).
Buy – Amlin (AML), Inspicio (INP), 600 Group (SIXH), Healthcare Locums (HLO), Universe (UNG).

Tip Updates:
Buy – Hampson (HAMP), Oakdene (OKD), Speymill (SYG).
Sell - British Energy (BGY).
Good value - Invu (NVU).
Fairly priced - Vanco (VAN).

Company News:
Buy – Persimmon (PSN), WPP (WPP), Brazilian Diamonds (BDY), Nufcor Uranium (NU.), Hichens Harrison (HICH), Southern Bear (STBR), Xpertise (XPG), Brixton (BXTN).

FINANCIAL TIMES
Lex
Bank of America/Countrywide - BoA uses strong balance sheet to get attractive deal from Countrywide Financial .

Further news:
Takeover rumours around Abbot Group (ABG).
Output doubts hit ReneSola (SOLA).
Solar Integrated Technologies (SIT) advances on rumours a construction company wants a 29% stake.

Ukraine asset sale hopes boost Regal Petroleum (RPT).

THE TIMES
Tempus :
Avoid - Rentokil (RTO).
Buy - Cape (CIU).
Avoid - Photo-Me International (PHTM).

Tiddler to Watch:
STM Group (STM).

Further news:
Northern Rock (NRK) retreats from sub-prime market.
More rumours of talks with Carlsberg help Scottish & Newcastle (SCTN).
Tech Data boost for Datatec (DTC).

DAILY TELEGRAPH
Questor
Hold - Rentokil (RTO).
Hold - National Grid (NG.).

Further news:
Northern Rock (NRK) attracts Dutch admirer.

INDEPENDENT
Outlook
Calm returns, but not over yet.

Photo-Me (PHTM) boss finally faces the chop.

Investment
Buy - National Grid (NG.).
Buy - NETeller (NLR).
Buy - Clinphone (CNP).

DAILY MAIL
At a Glance:
First in class (First Derivatives (FDP)).

Further news:
Top CDO resignation fuels Barcap debt fears.
ReneSola (SOLA) has lost its shine.
Small firms could lose free banking.

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
Rumours of bid by Pfizer (PFZ) lift Silence Therapeutics (SLN).

OTHER NEWS
British Airways (BAY) $300 million fine - pleads guilty to fixing prices.
ING says not interested in Northern Rock (NRK).
BAE (BA.) wins $368-million contract with Royal Navy.
Eleco (ELCO) advises shareholders to be careful after some approached for an unsolicited sale .
Irvine Energy (IVE) to raise £1.5 million via issue of 66.72-million shares at 2.25p.
Mitie Group (MTO) to buy stakes in 4 units for £6.6-million cash and stock.

Dow closed down 0.25 points at 13235.88, Nasdaq lost 11 points to 2541, S&P fell 1.5 points to 1462.50.
Top Republicans call for Iraq pull-out.
Data on business investment from the Office for National Statistics suggest slowing economy.
US FED adds $17.25 billion liquidity to markets and announces 2nd Treasury bill redemption.
Countrywide Financial chief says sub-prime crisis will drag America into recession.
US first-time jobless falls to 322,000 vs 320,000 expected.
Australia to crack down on Chinese clothing and textile products after excessive levels of the cancer-causing agent formaldehyde were found in blankets.

22 August 2007 - 13:20

BROKER STOCKMARKET RECOMMENDATIONS

After all the stockmarket turmoil of recent weeks with the FTSE and DOW down around 10%, here's what the brokers say. I'll hav a look at tsome of the 'buys' as I haven't got anything to sell (and shorts are too risky for me) or 'hold'.

Citigroup repeats hold on Brixton (BXTN) (price target is cut to 460p from 520p) - buy Weir Group (WEIR) (price target cut to 770p from 805p) and Persimmon (PSN) (price target 1716p).

Daniel Stewart has started coverage of Prodesse (PRD) with a buy recommendation and 500p target – repeats buy on Imperial Energy (IEC).
- buy Quintain (QED).

Cazenove repeats outperform rating on Northern Rock (NRK) and in-line for HSBC (HSBA).

Deutsche upgrades Reuters (RTR) to buy from hold (target raised to 740p from 650p) - downgrades Pearson (PSON) to hold from buy (target cut to 915p from 930p).
- buy JKX Oil (JKX) (415p target).

Evolution repeats buy BHP Billiton (BLT) (1700p target) and says add ICI (ICI) (675p target).
- reduce Sainsbury (SBRY) (465p target) - buy Tullow Oil (TLW) (500p target), Venture Productions (VPC) (779p target) and Waterman (WTM) (225p target).

Credit Suisse repeats neutral stance on BP (BP.) (target cut by 4% to 615p) - outperform on Shell (RDSA) (price target cut by 2% to 2150p).

ING repeats buy Standard Life (SL.) (360p price target).

WH Ireland repeats market perform on Formation Group (FRM).

Goldman neutral on Sage Group (SGE) (price target cut to 250p from 275p) and Weir Group (WEIR) (price cut to 710p from 740p).

KBC Peel Hunt says buy Tullow Oil (TLW) and Venture Production (VPC).

Landsbanki downgrades Corporate Services (CSV) to hold from buy - initiates coverage of IQE (IQE) with a buy recommendation
- repeats hold BHP Billiton (BLT) and buy on Hidefield Gold (HIF).

Merrill repeats buy Weir Group (WEIR) (target raised to 800p from 785p) and sell Antofagasta (ANTO).

Morgan Stanley upgrades Kesa Electricals (KESA) to equal-weight from underweight (300p target).

JP Morgan overweight Punch Taverns (PUB) (1600p target) and overweight easyJet (EZJ) and Ryanair (RYA).

Panmure Gordon repeats buy Delek Global Real Estate (DGRE) (248p target) and says buy EBT Mobile China (EBT) (36p target) and Persimmon (PSN) (1423p target).
- hold Stagecoach (SGC) (214p target).

UBS repeats buy Persimmon (PSN) (target cut to 1400p from 1435p) - prefers BP (BP.) (buy 655p target) over Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA).
Seymour Pierce repeats outperform H&T Group (HAT) and says sell Lonmin (LMI).


NYSE shares closed mixed - conflicting signals on the FED and whether they would move again on the credit crunch. Dow Jones closed down 30.5 points at 13091, Nasdaq was up 12 -points to 2521, S&P closed up 1.5-points at 1447.

Spreadbetters and Traders Lose Money!

20 August 2007 - 20:30

Spreadbetters and Traders Lose Money!

Simon Bowers in the Guardian said on Saturday that spreadbetters and traders apparently had a terrible day last Thursday, one of the worst ever in fact. Both professional traders and amateur investors bet ‘aggressively’ that the stockmarket would recover only to discover, too late, that the FTSE 100 had its sharpest decline in over 4 years.

If so many traders were betting on a rise in the markets, then who was selling stock ? If so many people were buying, then you would expect the markets to go up. But apparently not, there must have been a whole load of ‘other traders’ who were selling even more aggressively than the first lot were buying. In which case it makes no sense to say that traders were aggressively buying, as there must have been others with deeper pockets selling even more.

That’s how it works isn’t it ? Markets rise when there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa. Yet people were aggressively buying and the markets went down. It makes no sense. It almost makes you think that the markets are being manipulated to cause the greatest number of people to lose the greatest amount of money.

No doubt my reasoning is too simplistic.

But I will add another simplistic thought, if somebody is losing all this money, then somebdy else is winning it. The money isn't just disappearing into a black hole, it's going into somebody's pockets. Into the market makers, i.e. the very people who set the prices ?

Will Armitage, at IG Index, said that heavy losses for traders "would have been industry-wide".
Fearless traders apaprently rushed in to bet that markets would bounce sharply after the previous day’s losses.

But in a strange reversal of logic, aggressive bets on a rebound coincided with a 4% drop in the FTSE 100.

Simon Denham, of Capital Spreads, said: "Wise traders would still be sitting on their hands unless there is a specific reason for being in the market. The present situation is as random as I have seen it for years and holding positions in virtually anything is a white-knuckle ride."

"Some punters made very good money but, in the main, most were caught in the headlights and run down."

Another senior fund manager said "Anyone who claims they know what is going on is lying."

Anybody who does know what is going on please leave a comment below, 'cause I would love to know.

18 August 2007

Newspaper Share Tips and Rumours

THE TIMES
Tempus:
Avoid Jessops but hold if you've already got them -
Buy 3i
Infrastrucutre - Invest in Mirland

Tiddler to watch
Albidon

DAILY TELEGRAPH
Questor:
Buy International Ferro Metals –
Buy Greene King

DAILY EXPRESS
High volume helps broker ICAP –
Kelda and Severn Trent up on merger speculation

18 August 2007 - 17:30

Are Stocks Cheap Enough Now ?

After the recent stockmarket turbulence, the sharp falls in the DOW, FTSE, Nasdaq, Nikkei etc... and the Fed's decision to cut its discount rate, Shannon Zimmerman over at the Motley Fool in an article entitled Steal These Stocks says that there are some bargain stocks around now that are looking good enough to ‘steal’

The original article was written on 12 December 2006, but given recent stockmarket events it has been updated.

The stocks he recommends are :-

ExxonMobil (XOM), Bank of America (BAC), and ConocoPhillips (COP) as their P/Es are currently below the P/E of the S&P 500 but also their own 5-year averages.

If you are more adventurous he says you could also look into stocks like Intel (INTC), Sony (SNE) and Qualcomm (QCOM). They each have 5-year earnings-growth forecast of 15% or higher -- and a P/E better than the market average.


Personally I am inclined to still hang back a bit although I may have a short-term punt to see if I can make a quick buck, but if things start pointing down the pan again I’ll be out very quick. Consensus seems to be that volatility will continue until September or mid-September, depending on who you listen to.

For Art Hogan's view take a look at What is the Fed Discount Rate? And Art Hogan

stockmarket falls, bargain stocks, motley fool, art hogan, discount rate

17 August 2007 - 19:25

What is the Fed Discount Rate ? And Art Hogan

The discount rate, also known as the window discount rate or the discount window is the interest that the Fed charges any bank that borrows money from the Fed. It is called a discount rate although it is actually higher than the normal rate. There used to be a stigma attached to borrowing from the Fed at a cut rate so a few years back the Fed increased the rate to above the normal rate, saying that it was willing to lend money to banks but they would have to pay for it.

Now by cutting the discount rate by half a percentage point to 5.75% the Fed is making money more easily to the banks which have been suffering from the inability to get credit from each other .

This time round the Federal Reserve Board said it was acting to "promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets." The Fed also increased the time period from overnight to 30 days.

The cut in the discount rate instead of the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed believes problems are being experienced in the financial system, not in the economy as a whole. The reduction in the discount rate makes funds available to banks, without affecting consumer and commercial interest rates, although many people are now expecting a cut in the fed funds rates in September.

The timing of the cut, before the markets opened was also significant, as it meant that lots of people who were short (i.e. they were selling stocks they didn’t actually owned) were caught out as shares prices soared before they could buy them back.

Ben Bernanke also said he would take further measures as necessary, so shorters will need to be wary.

Art Hogan, who has an uncanny knack of getting things right, was just on CNBC saying that the message from the Fed is clear :- liquidity will be more readily available and less expensive, the Fed does not want problems in the finance sector to affect the economy. He doesn’t see this move as being a prelude to a base rate cut in September, as the Fed is still concerned about the weak dollar and inflation. This move gives the economy room to breathe and there will be a positive reaction near-term. Fed is saying it will act as necessary, there should be a bit of a bounce, but the move up will not significant until we get more clarity, which should be sometime in September, end of 3rd quarter, before we can decide where the bargains are – should not be much impact on consumers.

So wait till September although there should be a bounce over next few days. Jim Cramer says today will see the greatest Dow point move ever ! We shall see.


window discount rate
fed cuts discount rates
ben bernanke
what is discount rate
art hogan
jim cramer

17 August 2007 - 13:35

Fed Cuts Window Discount Rates

The Federal Reserve has announced that it is cutting the so-called window discount rate by 0.5% to 5.75% , in reaction to concerns about the subprime lending crisis and volatility in the financial markets.

The fed funds rate has not been cut.

The Fed said it took the move to "promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets."

It also said that "financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward."

Adding "although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably".

It also indicated that it was ready to take more action if required.

The timing, before the markets opened, was also designed to catch shorters off-balance. DOW futures have risen sharply, the FTSE has gone from fdown 30 to up 189 - it was up over 230 at one point.

Art Cashin says : "it's very unusual to cut discount window rate - banks don't like using it as it dras attention to themselves but it is the right thing to do - it is still above fed funds rate - shows Fed may do more down the road - Yen is still critical "

People have reacted very favourably - Bernanke seen as being a maestro.

window discount rate
fed cuts discount rates
ben bernanke

17 August 2007 - 12:20

Hello welcome to my amateur ramblings about the stockmarket. These are interesting times !

Newspaper and Magazine Share Tips and Rumours

Yes, there are still some share tips ! Personally I'm sitting on the sidelines as there is just too much volatility around, my own personal favourite Silence Therapeutics (SLN) has taken an absolute hammering for no apparent reason down from 145p to 65p in the last couple of weeks and down 20% two days in a row. I was tempted to buy in at 100p ! Fortunately for me I resisted the temptation.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE
Tips:
Buy – Hays (HAS), Bellway (BWY), MyHome International (MYH), Hydro International (HYD).
Sell – Computacenter (CCC), Mariana Resources (MARL).

Tip Updates:
Buy – Maxima (MXM), Land Securities (LAND), Kingspan (KGP), Chieftain (CFT).
Sell - Micro Focus (MCRO).

High enough - Highland Gold Mining (HGM).

Company News:
Buy – Ladbrokes (LAD), Aviva (AV.), Rok (ROK), Leadcom Integrated Solutions (LEAD), LSL Property Services (LSL), Libra Natural Resources (LNR), Reflec (REF), County Contract Centres (CUY), Portmeirion (PMP), Balfour Beatty (BBY).


FINANCIAL TIMES
Lombard Column:
British Land (BLND) fall overdone.

Further news:
British Energy (BGY) output warning.
Markets suffer but belief persists in real economy.

THE TIMES
Tempus :
British Land (BLND) attractively priced for the brave investor.
Hold - Psion (PON).
Avoid - British Energy (BGY).

Tiddler to Watch:
Dori Media (DMG).

Other news:
Traders expect CSR (CSR) to issue disappointing figures

DAILY TELEGRAPH
Comment:
More FTSE falls to come.
GCap (GCAP) is not walking on air.

Questor :
Markets: stay on board as equities head for stormy waters.

INDEPENDENT
Investment :
Hold - British Energy (BGY).
Hold - Northern Rock (NRK).
Sell - Climate Exchange (CLE).

Other news:
Alliance & Leicester (AL.) slumps on bid skepticism.

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
New Star (NSAM) and Bluebay (BBAY) asset managers seen as attractive medium-term buys- 12 months.

OTHER NEWS
A Macquarie consortium is said to be considering a £4-billion bid for Southern Water.
Smith & Nephew recalls hip implants after mix-up.
Cable & Wireless wins 3-year multi-million pound contract with Virgin.
GlaxoSmithKline and Baxter in £155-million flu vaccine deal.
Morgan Sindall unit and Amec win £134 million East Dunbartonshire schools project.
Rolls-Royce wins $296-million technology research programme with USAF.
Creative Education (CEC) refinancing talks have failed - shares suspended.

Dow down 15 points at 12845, Nasdaq lost 7 points to 2451.07, S&P up 4.5 points to 1411.
Moody's lowers Countryside Financial's debt rating to BAA3 from A3 as it borrows $11.5 bn from 40 banks.

17 August 2007 - 11:05

Analysts' Analysis on CNBC Powerlunch

First a breakdown of US markets - futures all over this place this morning - plummeted in last hour - Moody's has cut piggy back loans (taken out at same time as primary mortage to finance down payment) - GM says market turmoil could hurt auto sales

Analysts were :-

Paul Tcherkow Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi -
"exporters have been on holiday this week and when they come back next week they will panic - more volatility next week - thinks FED will cut rates because of credit crunch - banks not lending to each other "

Andy Lynch - Schroders -
"lot of fear around because banks don't know who has problems - but won't spill over into the real economy - lower near-term, up by end of the year - doesn't think FED will have emergency rate cut - if it starts to affect real economy then FED might act- indices may drop another 5 - 6 % "

Elissa Bayer - Insinger de Beaufort -
"expects more days like this - banks made lots of bad loans - market was due for a correction and a reality check - some products are so complicated they can't be unwound - things should calm down by end of month - and should not affect rest of economy - doesn't think FED should make emergency rate cut - "

Q : Good level for long term ?
EB - get quality companies - wait till end of month -
AL - foreced sellers wil carry on for next 5 - 10 days - sitting on sidelines for the moment
PT - if FED doesn't act there will be a US recession - not buying at the moment - in cash - buy Euros. but not yet

Q : British Energy down 30% - is it a buy ?
AL - No - Elec price going up but BE have significant problems with their fleet but harder than they thought it would be - too risky - lots of liabilities re. nuclear waste - not confident
EB - go back to fundamentals - BE was not on most people's buying list - BE has too many problems - not a buying opportunity
PT - lot of froth in energy and commodity markets - could be sold aggresively to raise cash - oil price still relatively strong could be $20 too high - if there is a US recession all commodities could be hit

EB - doesn't agree there will be a commodity crisis - strong correction but market could bounce and there is quite lot of cash about
PT - neg equity in housing market - consumers will find new credit hard + houses going down - small businesses starved of new credit - so US economy could prove weaker than people expect

Q : ING Bank a buy ?
AL - they will be affected - have some subprime exposure - but medium long-term it is cheap

Q : Premier Foods ?
EB - says a weak stock - well-document problems - avoid stocks that were already falling before recent problems
AL - AB Foods is a much better play

Q : Why are economists saying fundamentals are good ? Isn't market looking forward into future ?
AL - current events are short-term panic and fear, not deterioration in fundamentals - not acting in forward-looking mode but in panic mode
PT - market is prescient - saying things not nearly as good as people thought
EB - activity in market way above fundamental considerations - perfectly good stocks getting hammered due to factors outside of what is going on in the economy

Q : Share Buy Backs ?
EB - not necessarily bad - but will probably stop soon - check each co. on its merits

Q : Which sectors ? Buy stock exchanges ?
AL - all stock exchanges are very expensive - takeover premium priced in, which could well go away - if there is a recession there will be lower volumes - even insolvency practitioners a bit overpriced

Top Tip
AL - don't panic out of high quality cos.
EB - cash over next few weeks - go for quality companies, not second line and unmarketable companies - still likes commodities
PT - fav. currency after dust settles euro against dollar - pound against dollar


All in all PT was more negative than EB and AL who both thought this was a short-term correction, which would give buying opportunities towards end of the month. Also said buy quality companies which were not falling before this correction started.
Have a nice day !

DOW Surges Back up - Hewlett has Blow-Out Third Quarter

16 August 2007 - 21:00

DOW Storms Back 350 Points - HP Exceptional Third Quarter

The DOW hit 12,518 on the downside before rebounding to almost 12,800 before bouncing back down to 12,550 before bouncing back 350 points to around 20 points up although it finished down 14.

It was down 343 points at 1 p.m. before the financials led a late day rally to send the DOW into positive territory in the last hour. It finished down around 14 points.

Some people are saying the bottom has been ut in with a 10% correction from the highs.

Countrywide is however down 60% from its high of the year.

Bob Pisani says : record volume, some people short-covering to raise cash, no rollover at the close, financials short squeeze, fannie mae in constructive talks with regulators to add more mortgages, Bear Stearns moved up 12%.

Nasdaq dropped below 200 day MA but moved back above it at the finish. 10% correction but still +ve on the year, Etrade says it has seen no material changes to date,

Hewlett Packard announces blow-out third quarter. 0.71 actual vs. 0.66 estimated.Techs now being cited as a 'safe haven' by many.
Amazing performance in PCs.

Possible capitulation in the market seen today.

16 August 2007 - 12:55

Markets Plunge Again - Newspaper Tips and Rumours

Amid a sea of red in stockmarkets around the world with the FTSE down 221 the CAC down 173 and the DAX down 187 and the DOW expected to open up 129 down here are the newspaper tips and recommendations, which are surprisingly upbeat, but they were written yesterday.

Predicting is a mug's game of course but I predict a return of Hugh Hendry to our television screens, he hasn't been on for quite a few weeks, but I suspect they will want him on to tell everybody how well he's been doing. He's always good for winding people up!

SHARES MAGAZINE

Beat the credit crunch with these cash rich minnows:
Datacash (DATA) - Central African Mining (CFM) - Mwana Africa (MWA) - LMS Capital (LMS) - Invista Real Estate Investment (INRE) - European Nickel (ENK) - Numis (NUM) - Tanfield (TAN) - Hamworthy (HMY) - James Halstead (JHD).

Foremost:
Buy – London Stock Exchange (LSE), BP (BP.), Silverjet (SIL), Carpetright (CPR), British Airways (BAY), Lancashire (LRE), Straight (STT), ZTC (ZTC), Telecom Plus (TEP), Lonmin (LMI), Teleset (TNW).

Speculative Buy – Futura Medical (FUM) (they have just devised a condom that improves erections the CSD500 see my previous post - New Condom Makes Erections Last Longer .

Hold – HSBC (HSBA), JSM Indochina (JSM), Beazley (BEZ), Hiscox (HSX), HSBC Infrastructure Company (HICL), RBS (RBS), Dawnay Day (DDC), ICI (ICI), Ryanair (RYA),.

Sell – Barclays (BARC), HBOS (HBOS), Lloyds TSB (LLOY), Premier Asset Management (PAM).

Accept the bid – Dobbies (DGC).

Avoid – Catlin (CGL), Game Group (GMG), Sports Direct (SPD), Servocell (SERV).

Plays of the Week:
Buy - BAE (BA.) and Heritage Underwriting (HUA).

Cashing in on Dining Out:
Domino's Pizza (DOM) - Fishworks (FSH) - Individual Restaurant (IRC) - Carluccio's (CARL) - Clapham House (CPH) - Restaurant Group (RTN) - - Prezzo (PRZ) - Tasty (TAST) .

Trading Plays:
Sell - Barclays (BARC).
Buy - WPP Group (WPP) and Informa (INF).

FINANCIAL TIMES
Lombard Column:

(Northern) Rock (NRK) faces a hard climb

Other news:
Builders rise on hopes of an end to interest rate rises.
Lehman cautious on British Energy (BGY).

THE TIMES
Tempus
Buy - Balfour Beatty (BBY).
Worth watching - Northern Rock (NRK).
Hold - Quintain Estates (QED).

Tiddler to Watch:
NetDimensions (NETD).

Other news:

Major investment bank said to be advising that hedge fund clients short G4S (GFS).

DAILY TELEGRAPH

Questor
Buy - Balfour Beatty (BBY).
Long-term buy - Quintain Estates (QED).
Risky buy - EBTM (EBTM).

Other news:
Bankruptcy scare for Countrywide - leading US home lender.
Northern Rock (NRK) falls further on fears of a profit warning.

INDEPENDENT
Investment
Hold - Britvic (BVIC).
Buy - Smurfit Kappa (SKG).
Sell - Border & Southern Petroleum (BOR).

Other news:
Quintain (QED) dives as HBOS (HBOS) says there is no takeover bid.

DAILY MAIL

Oher news:
Cheer for S&N (SCTN) as gloom grows.
Privatisation hopes lift Intec Telecom Systems (ITL).

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
Traders believe Man Group (EMG) shares are oversold.

***

OTHER NEWS
Merriell Lynch survey says equities still in favour despite market turmoil. (Maybe that has changed today ?)
Blackstone eyes up New Look.
Sefton Resources obtains $10-million line of credit to increase production at Tapia.

FKI wins $123-million baggage system contract for Qatar airport.

Shire (SHP) to invest $50 million for 6.5% shares in Renova (RVA); gets exclusive rights to Juvista drug.

Sony to go ahead with planned £1.3-million listing of financial unit despite market turmoil.

Dow closed down 167 at 12861, Nasdaq fell 40 points to 2458, S&P down 19 to 1406 (S&P now negative on the year).

BoE Monetary Policy Committee minutes cause speculation that interest rates may have stopped rising.
European Commission to investigate credit ratings agencies, as a result of their slow response to subprime mortgage crisis.

Countrywide, America's biggest mortgage lender, sharply lower on fears it may go bankrupt.

In the UK Northern Rock takes steps to calm concerns about funding of business.

Royal Dutch Shell evacuates Gulf of Mexico staff as storm approaches.
US homebuilders August index drops to 22 vs 24 July and forecast 23.
US Federal Reserve adds $7 billion to financial markets.
US home sales fall nearly 11% in second quarter.

15 August 2007 - 17:30

No Stockmarket Bounce Until Visibility Returns

FTSE finished down 34 Dow Jones started positive but down 15 at the moment Nasdaq and S&P flat

The problem with the markets at the moment, according to Bob Pisani and people in the know, is that banks and brokerage firms are having to raise cash. They are therefore 'deleveraging' and the implications are that profit levels will fall because banks can't make money from cash.

Twenty-five per cent of profits in the S&P come from financials, but there is no visibility, nobody knows how much money financials are making and there is still the possibility that stocks might get hit badly. What people want is some sort of clarity, the need to see how much money bansk are making.

This sounds very much like what happened after the dotcom bubble burst, when everybody was saying 'we need visibility' i.e. they needed to see how much money the tech companies were making. Now they are saying the same thing about banks.

I doubt if the two scenarios will play out the same, as I suspect that banks will always make money, which is not the case with tech companies. The banks will also probably do better than some of the hedge funds I suspect over the next couple of months.

Doug Robert Channel Capital Research says this is a fairly large correction and we're in the middle of it but it's no more than that. Strategy should be to focus on most liquid stocks in the market, avoid thinly traded stocks - lean towards larger/midcap stocks.

Quincey Krosby Hartford Chief Investment Strategist - says corection might have a little more downside - says to wait a bit - hedge funds have been forced sellers - dollar-cost averaging is the name of the game and it is important to get in at the beginning of the upturn.

So all in all it seems that the correction has further to go and the banks need to provide clarity abot how much money they are making.

15 August 2007 - 12:10

Newspaper Stockmarket Tips and Rumours

THE TIMES
Tempus
National Express (NEX) – Steer clear.
InterContinental Hotels (IHG) - Hold.
Sinclair Pharma (SPH) - Only if you are very patient.

Tiddler to Watch:
International Ferro Metals (IFL).

Other news:
Rumours Britvic (BVIC) may buy C&C's (CCR) soft drinks business.

FINANCIAL TIMES
Carlsberg bid sends S&N (SCTN) higher.
Shell (RDSA) rumour lifts Regal Petroleum (RPT).

DAILY TELEGRAPH
Comment:
Inflation collapse is sign of hidden debt problem.
Warning from Northern Rock (NRK) seems inevitable.

Questor
Hold - National Express (NEX).
Buy - Nord Anglia (NAE).
Buy - Rok (ROK).

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
Ukrainian asset sale hopes boost Regal Petroleum (RPT).

Other news:
S&N (SCTN) up on £6.6 billion Carlsberg link talk.

Independent
Investment
Hold - InterContinental Hotels (IHG).
Buy - WH Smith (SMWH).
Risky buy - Celtic Resources (CER).
Other news: S&N (SCTN) steps back into the takeover spotlight.

COMMENT AND BID NEWS

Artilium (ARTA) says that it knows of no reason for the fall in its share price, says trading is in line.
MG Capital sells 29,691 shares in Celtic Resources (CER).
Schroders (SDR) has 16.16% stake in JD Wetherspoon (JDW).
Photo-Me International (PHTM) selling its vending division.
Cantor Fitzgerald confirms CFD margin rise.

Dow closed down 207 points at 13028, Nasdaq fell 43 points to 2499.12, S&P fell 26 points to close at 1426.

Two new foot-and-mouth cases suspected in Kent.
US banks caught in credit market problems have started refusing to lend money against hedge funds' subprime credit portfolios.
US hedge fund manager Sentinel wants to stop investors from cashing in their funds.
US July PPI up 0.6%; core PPI up 0.3%.
US trade deficit down 1.7% to 4-month low of $58.1 billion.
GlaxoSmithKline's application for oral vaccine Rotarix accepted for review by US FDA .

14 August 2007 - 18:09

Headless Chickens Rule the Stockmarket Roost

The FTSE 100 fell 75 points as credit market fears resurfaced (had they ever gone away) after a volatile session in which it bounced around, varying between up and down before finally deciding it was worried about sub-prime mortgages again and finished down. Volumes have also been low which has served to exaggerate market movements.

Shares started off brightly enough but turned down towards the close of play after disappointing earnings from Wal-Mart and Home Depot Inc. and fears that the credit environment will get worse. Although there is always the possibiltiy that Wall Street will turn around again and finish positive on hopes that the credit environment won’t get worse ! It’s nice to know that I’m not the only one who doesn’t know what he’s doing. Just a few weeks ago everything was hunkydory and the Dow was setting new highs every day !

The markets were caught off guard as two Canadian trusts said they were no longer able to repay maturing commercial paper and that a bank had refused to provide liquidity.

According to Dan Bunting, Head of research at Fortis Private Investment Management "People just run around like headless chickens and everyone's an armchair economist." Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to figure out what the headless chickens were going to do next ! See here for Mike the headless chicken that actually lived onwithot a head for 18 months back in 1945 (incredible but true) - Mike the Headless Chicken

He (Dan Bunting) also said "Investors get very confused at times like this … It's the chasing tail exercise really." That’s all well and good Dan, but what we really want to know is which stocks are going to shoot up 10% like they did the other day. Was it only yesterday ?

Banks gave up early gains and ended in the red. Barclays fell 3.3% and Standard Chartered fell 2.6%.

RBS fell 1.3%. I remember owning a few banks during the dotcom bubble, I thoght they couldn’t fall any lower, but they just kept on falling, until I sold them of course !

Scottish & Newcastle rose 1.3% (not much) on rumours that Carlsberg was buying ahead of a bid.

S&N declined to comment, while Carlsberg also declined to comment except they did it with a lot more words.

Miners, which had surged yesterday, moved ahead again in the morning but fell back and finished down. Anglo American fell 1.3% despite being upgraded by HSBC to "overweight" from "neutral". Good, I wanted to buy AAL but was caught out yesterday when he rushed ahead, maybe it will drop back again.

The Office for National Statistics said CPI dropped to 1.9% on an annualised basis in July, down from 2.4%, analysts had only expected a decline to 2.2%. Leading to hopes that the BoE will stop giving money of mortgage holders and giving it to the banks.

So, all in all, more evidence that nobody knows what they’re doing, except those wise beings that are making money, where are they and what are they doing ?

14 August 2007 - 10:55

Share Tips and Rumours

THE TIMES
Tempus
Hold - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).
Nord Anglia (NAE) - Avoid.
Blacks Leisure (BSLA) - Hold - developments expected

Small Cap to Watch:
ZTC Telecoms (ZTC).

Other news:
Hedge funds forced sellers of equities .
Metals Exploration (MTL) lifted by talks in Indonesian nickel exploration rights

DAILY TELEGRAPH
Questor
ICI (ICI) - Hold.
Management Consulting (MMC) - Trading buy.

FINANCIAL TIMES

Rok (ROK) -‘compelling buy’.
ABN downgrade hits F&C (FCAM).




DAILY MAIL
Analysis
Highland Gold (HGM) – Worth a punt.
Nord Anglia (NAE) – Hold.

Other news:
Japanese takeover rumours boost Halfords (HFD).
Theme parks lift Venue Solutions (VSH).

DAILY EXPRESS
Share Whisper:
Aveva (AVV) is worth around 1141p a share according to analysts.

Independent
Investment
Hold - Kingfisher (KGF).
Hold - SMG (SMG).
Buy - Management Consulting (MMC).

OTHER NEWS
Goldman Sachs to use $3-billion of its own money to bail out Global Equity Opportunities hedge fund in an admission that its computerized funds malfunctioned last week.
Barclays (BARC) receives consent for merger with ABN Amro .
RBS consortium ups stake in ABN Amro to over 3%.

BHP Billiton (BLT) discovers gas at Thebe-1 in Western Australia.
Torotrak (TRK) raises £6.75-million from placing and open offer.
Northgate Information (NIS) wins £1.8-million 5-year contract.

Dow closed down 3 points at 13,236, Nasdaq fell 2.5 to 2,542, S&P lost 1 point to 1453.
American tourists put off visiting UK by strong pound.
US FED adds $2 bn in open market operation.
BNP Paribas (BNP) says it might unfreeze the three investment funds it froze by end of August.
Japanese recovery still underway despite recent turmoil and slowdown.