Monday, December 31
DAVID BUIK was top tipster for 2007 so here are his tips for 2008
BAE Systems (BA.) (498p) - BUY
Defence company should get new contracts in Saudi Arabia, the US and the Far East.
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) (£12.81) - BUY
Could make a quantum leap forward, replacing ageing pipeline with biotechs.
HBOS (729½p) - SELL
Upbeat guidance from bank but it will probably suffer from the credit crunch and fall in mortgage growth.
ANGUS CAMPBELL managed to achieve an 11.75% increase last year.
Anglo American (AAL) (£30.97) – BUY – Possibility of takeover activity in mining sector plus platinum prices likely to rise further.
International Power (IPR) (455¾p) - BUY
Electricity generating company a good defensive buy.
British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) (627p) - SELL
Trading on a very high multiple, it may find it difficult to attract new subscribers in difficult retail environment.
RICHARD CUNNINGHAM Managing Director City Index, tips for 2008
Barratt Developments (BDEV) (452p) - BUY
Property group very cheap relative to fair value - high probability it will be a bid target
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) (181¼p) - BUY
Broking group technically oversold – should outperform the broader market.
WPP (646p) - SELL
Poor consumer confidence, slowdown in spending and GDP growth will weigh on WPP.
GARY THOMSON, Head of Sales Trading at CMC Markets. Tips for 2008
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) (£12.81) - BUY
Innovative company with a number of drugs in advanced stages.
DSG International (DSGI) (101¾p) - SELL
Credit crunch will mean 2008 is difficult year for electrical retailers.
Unilever (ULVR) (£19.17) - SELL
Defensive qualities might be insufficient to protect it from some serious profit taking.
Among the share tips I've looked at so far Glaxo is the most popular getting three recommendations.
For all the stock tips discovered so far see the posts below :
More Share Tips 2008 More Stock Tips 2008 Two Stock Tips 2008
Further reading : Trade Stocks Online
Home : Stocks and Shares
Sunday, December 30
The Stock MarketMore share tips from the Times Online :
James Ashton goes with LOGICA (LOG) arguing that new chief Andy Green, who previously worked for BT, will improve the company's performance and that the share is oversold with a pe ratio of just 11 x 2007 earnings. Dividend yield is 5%. There is plenty of upside for Logica and it may even be a bid target.
3 Year Candlestick chart
Louise Armitstead goes with HAMMERSON (HMSO) which she argues is oversold and could well be a bid target. The credit crunch and the subprime crisis has hit property stocks hard. Hammerson's shares are down 36% but the company has a prime portfolio.
10 Year Chart - interesting to say the least
Ben Laurance goes with GALIFORM (GFRM). The shares have fallen from 170p to 92p due to general pessimism in the retail sector - Galiform makes - kitchen units. But the company should improv eprofits over the next couple of years. The shares look very oversold and should make big gains in the coming 12 months.
3 Month Candlestick Chart
Matthew Goodman goes with GLAXO (GSK). 2008 will be a year of change for Glaxo as Andrew Witty becomes CEO and will shake things up. There are important drug launches to come in 2008 with Tykerb and Cervarix in Europe. The next 2 years will see around 10 new drugs come on stream. Shares are at 13 x earnings and are underpinned y a £12bn buyback program.
1 Year Chart
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Galiform chart looks interesting, but Glaxo looks like a safer bet. The other two look like hit or miss punts.
Share tips for 2008 from the Times Online :
John Waples goes for FILTRONIC (FTC) a telecoms company which he describes as a safe stock - he sees a 30% upside potential.
2 year candlestick chart
Dominic O'Connell goes with ARICOM (ORE) which he describes as 'something risky' a mining venture that will benefit from iron-ore price rises and could become a takeover target.
2 year candlestick chart
Grant Rinshaw goes with AVIVA (AV.) the UK's second biggest insurer which is trading close to a record low valuation even though it has strong solvency, increasing profitability and improved cashflows. Threats are possible stockmarket falls and more credit crunching. At 672p they are trading at just 9 x earnings. Investment bank Keefe Bruyette & Woods says they are trading at a 46% discount to the sum of its parts.
1 Year Candlestick Chart
Jenny Davey goes with Berkeley Group (BKG) the housebuilder, arguing that worries are overdone and the shares have already slumped 33% even though demand for its homes is 'resilient' and that London and the South-East will fare better than many parts of the UK. Plus there might be an attempt to take the company private. And next month BKG will pay out a special dividend of £2. Inerest-rate cuts and improving sentiment could lead to a rebound.
1 Year Candlestick Chart
Of the four above I prefer Aviva, but that may be because I'm getting old and can't stand too much excitement.
Stock Market News
Zak Mir, a well-respected chartist in the UK, has just recommended Standard Chartered bank (STAN),which has a lot of dealings with the Far East as a buy for 2008, arguing that it should avoid the worst effects of the continuing credit crunch, plus speculation of a Chinese stake should support the stock 'over and above trading fundamentals'. He has put a target of 2,050p on it, current price 1850p.
A Small Cap Tip
Over at Smallcapshares they recommend Carclo (CAR) as a small cap for 2008. Carclo supplies technical plastics components worldwide
The chart looks a bit grim but they argue the shares are oversold
10 year chart
3 month candlestick chart
The company is expected to post revenues of £80 million in 2008 and £81.5 million in 2009. Growth prospects for the medical and LED areas make these forecasts conservative and the CIT division has not been reflected in these estimates, this could increase earnings significantly.
With a current year multiple of 10.5 times earnings falling to 9.6 times in 2009, they argue this is good value and they see both short term and long term upside.
Friday, December 21
Stock Market News
Bear Sterns suffers first quarterly loss in 84-years.
Hold Carnival (CCL) due to demographics and huge Asian potential
Buy Senior (SNR)
Take a look at Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) .
Braemar Shipping Services (BMS).
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) up on bid talk.
Strategic Natural Resources (SNRP) expected to reveal today a threefold increase in the area under exploration for coal in South Africa.
Petra Diamonds (PDL) sells 9943 carat diamond found in South Africa, for $1.3-million.
Rift Oil (RIFT) up on gas reserves.
WPP up on rumours of GSK (GSK) account win.
Avoid Carnival (CCL).
Keller Group (KLR) – Solid value.
Buy Harvey Nash (HVN).
Rumours of JP Morgan interest in Bluebay (BBAY) .
But Tullow Oil (TLW)
Buy Keller Group (KLR).
Hold Augean (AUG).
Writedown - more woe for Bear Sterns.
Rising profit warnings spark fear of high street meltdown.
Sports Direct (SPD) up on buy-back scheme.
McBride (MCB) hit by high fuel prices.
Families of victims of Texas City oil refinery explosion reject $50-million deal from BP (BP.).
UK’s shocking reliance on debt revealed by ONS.
The Building Societies Association says it has seen 3rd-consecutive booming month for nation’s building societies.
A report from Moneysupermarket.com (MONY) says over half of lenders do not offer homeowners full base rate cut.
Thursday, December 20
The Stock Market
Just over a week ago Rentokil's share price fell by around 22% after they announced slightly worse than expected results in their delivery division. The drop was widely seen as overdone and since then a number of directors have been buying shares.
Chairman BRIAN MCGOWAN bought 25,000
FD ANDREW MACFARLANE bought 79,984 - both paid 117p
Duncan Tatton-Brown bought 10,000 at 113.4p
Alan Giles bought 10,000 at 113.4p
Today MD David Liu bought 80,154 at 118.5p
20 year Chart
1 Month Candlestick Chart
Evolution Securities has upgraded them to buy from add
BNP Paribas upgraded them to outperform from neutral
So could be worth a punt for a recovery
Wednesday, December 19
The Stock Market
The FTSE100 closed up 5 points at 6,284 and the FTSE250 closed up 45 points at 10,231 Volume was weak with just 2.11 billion shares changing hands in 634,518 deals.
In the US, stocks rose early on then fell back then rose again in a convincing show of indecision as investors greeted a $5bn investment from China in Morgan Stanley.
News that the BoE voted unanimously to cut interest rates a quarter point to 5.5% with some discussion to cut if 0.5%.
Persimmon was up 19p at 788p, Taylor Wimpey gained 3.7p at 199.9p and Barratt Developments was 7.75p higher at 447p.
Northern Rock was the top riser, 3.8p higher at 90.7p after SRM Global Master, raised its stake to 9.74% from 9.51%. A press report also said that Bradford & Bingley had approached Northern Rock about buying some of its assets, although this was denied by B&B.
Credit Suisse upgraded Rexam to 'outperform' from 'neutral', which rose 8.75p to 396p.
The broker said Rexam is an ‘interesting’ investment case due to its defensive growth characteristics, a 2007 dividend yield of 5.2%, and possible significant capital appreciation over 2008 .
Tullow Oil was 4.5p higher at 650p as Credit Suisse raised its target to 700p from 669p.
Barclays lost 10p to 499p after a downgrade by Goldman Sachs to 'sell' from 'neutral' .
In the FTSE250 Sports Direct, was up 16.75p at 101p, after reporting expected poor first-half figures and saying it has no plans to take company private, Merrill Lynch remainis cautious however, and Sports Direct has lost about 60% of its value in the last year.
UK price comparison website Moneysupermarket.com, rose 9p to 139.25p, after a trading update saying it expects full-year revenue to be no less than Â£160.9m, with internet revenue to grow in excess of 60% in the year.
Rentokil rose 3 p – with some thinking its recent falls had been overdone.
Monday, December 17
A video game - Guitar Hero III - bought for $90 has just sold for $9,100! That's got to be a world first. The story goes like this.
1. A guy spent two weeks for looking for the video game "Guitar Hero III" which apparently is almost impossible to find (why ? is the first question that comes to mind given that they can produce as many millions of the game as they like).
2. He is then so excited he found finally found that he told his son before Christmas ! (That's a bit naughty isn't it?) "I couldn't wait to spread the jubilance" (I learnt a new word today!)
3. He finds his son smoking a 'pot' (whatever that is) with some delinquent friends (he also said his son was not a delinquent)
4. To punish son he sticks the video game up on Ebay (ouch!)
5. Some bonzo in Australia coughs up $9,100 for the game ! (video games as investments for the future?)
Moral of the story : Forget the stockmarket and start hunting round shops for copies of Guitar Hero III.
Saturday, December 15
What is Automysophobia?
Automysophobia is a morbid fear of being dirty, or a persistent, abnormal, and unwarranted fear of being dirty. which is fine as it is one thing that I ain't got at least! But apparently it causes lots of people a great deal of stress.
Symptoms include panic attacks, shortness of breath, rapid breathing, sweating, irregular heartbeat, nausea, and general feelings of dread. Strangely enough there is no page for it on Wikipedia, so an opportunity there for someone to get in there first !
From what I can see treatment seems to be more along the lines of therapy rather than drugs, although I'm not a doctor so don't quote me on that.
Friday, December 14
Google is to launch a competitor to Wikipedia, known as Knol (what an awful name, how do you pronounce it ? And does it have anything to do with the infamous ‘grassy knoll’ ? Hopefully they will change it before they launch the service). The service is intended to be a collectively produced knowledge base which will become the first port of call for information on the web.
At the moment it is being subjected to a limited test, but is a very ambitious project designed to collect information from web users in all areas of knowledge.
Using the service, anyone will be able to create a page about anything they choose. As the service will be created by Google there will also be the possibility of having advertising on the page, from which the authors will be able to earn money. Google is not giving much away about how the submissions will be judged, but they did say user ratings will be important.
The hope that a knol will be the first place people will look for information on a topic, which of course will bring in even more dosh for Google. So is Google a good investment ?
At the moment people go to Wikipedia which is currently one of the 10 most-visited sites.
The problem with Wikipedia is that entries are anonymous, anybody can go along and edit a Wikipedia page just for the hell of it. There have often been also very animated "edit wars", as people try to the change entries to suit their own opinions, interpretation of events, or prejudices, which rather defeats the purpose of an encyclopaedia, unless of course you are of the belief that nothing ever happened, so you can say and believe whatever you like.
Google, however, intends identifying writers, the idea being to highlight authors, although there will be ‘rival notes’ that will be allowed.
It seems to me that the main idea is not to disseminate knowledge but to create yet another ‘must have’ service with billions of viewers and consequently billions more dollars in advertising revenue.
In this knowledge age it seems that it is knowledge itself that is becoming important not the accuracy of the knowledge, particularly in areas that are unverifiable or that can be disputed.
So as long as it works, i.e. as long as it is up and running and gets billions of people looking at it then Google is onto another winner. But it would be nice if they could change that name.
The Google 3 Year Chart - Pretty Impressive so far !
Thursday, December 13
Plays of Week:
Buy EAGA (EAGA) at 176p.
Buy Pennon (PNN) at 664p.
Buy Heritage Underwriting (HUA).
Buy Vodafone (VOD) - DSG (DSGI) - Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN).
Sell Sports Direct (SPD).
Hold Bunzl (BNZL).
Buy Rank Group (RNK), but highly speculative.
Buy Johnston Press (JPR).
Barratt (BDEV) up on French bid rumours.
Rumours of stake building in Regent Inns (REG).
Mears Group (MER) rumoured to be considering purchase of a listed rival.
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) fall prompts Cazenove to suggest a £5.8 billion rights issue.
Bid rumours set Victrex (VCT) running.
Hold Johnston Press (JPR).
Buy Raymarine (RAY).
Hold Mears (MER).
Rumours of discovery in Brazil lifts BG Group (BG.).
Buy Bunzl (BNZL).
Johnston Press (JPR) for the brave.
Buy Scott Wilson (SWG).
Rumours of France Telecom takeover interest nudges Cable & Wireless (CW.).
Financial restructuring at Carter & Carter (CART) may leave shareholders with nothing.
Angel Biotechnology (ABH) may have several buyers for Cramlington plant.
BG Group (BG.) up on Brazilian rumors.
Tuesday, December 11
NEW YORK - Wall Street slumped by the largtest amount in over a month, after the FED only took 25 basis points off he interest rates. This was the least investors had been expecting, they had been hoping for more, especially in the discount rate. The commentary was also not very encouraging, wth its emphasis on inflation.
Hong Kong also lowered its base rate.
The Dow Jones which was up 40 before the announcement immediately slumped and ended up down over 290 points.
The US markets have been rising over the last two weeks, up 640 points there was therefore a lot of room for disappointment.
The Fed also lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points, also a disappointment. The FED said further cuts are possible but that was not enough for the markets.
The FED statement said "information suggests that economic growth is slowing," and no longer says the risks to the economy are balanced, but it said its decision "should help promote moderate growth over time."
The Dow fell 294 to 13,432 at one point it was down 313 points.
The S&P 500 also fell 38, and the Nasdaq composite fell 66 to 2,652.
Bond prices rose sharply. Gold prices fell. The dollar was mixed.
Bruce McCain, of Key Private Bank, said the FED is not being too aggressive as it wants to wait for its previous rate cuts to take effect – which normally takes months.
In the banking sector Washington Mutual Inc. resorted to a massive stock sale to shore up its finances, with a scheme to sell $2.5 billion worth of convertible preferred stock.
Washington Mutual shares fell 12.4 % after it said it will lay off more than 3,000 workers, and slash its dividend. It also made provision for $1.6 billion for losses.
Citigroup named Vikram Pandit CEO, giving him the job of restoring profitability and reputation, Citi fell 4.4 %.
Asian markets are down the ASX is down 1%, Nikkei is down 1.8%, the Topix is down 1.67%. IHI is the worst performer down 17%
Carillion (CLLN) - hold.
Benfield Group (BFD) - hold.
Wichford (WICH) - Avoid.
Tiddler to Watch:
Discovery Metals (DME).
Ashtead (AHT) may increase dividend policy.
Buy - Southern Cross (SCHE).
Avoid - Benfield (BFD).
Sell - FKI (FKI).
Sell - Southern Cross (SCHE).
Sell - Benfield (BFD).
Buy - Northgate Information Solutions (NIS).
Speculation of Valirx (VAL) deal with BIO of Belgium.
Rumours of corporate activity at Prudential (PRU).
FKI (FKI) – Sell. Further news: Rumours of action soon at RPC (RPC).
Northern Rock (NRK) bid unlikely before Christmas, now seems like mid-January, Olivant and Virgin still main contenders.
Blackstone denies rumours of a Rio Tinto (RIO) break-up bid
Baugur says considering bid for Moss Bros (MOSB).
Transense (TRT) £4.12 million share placement; strategy review by new board.
New York Times wants Reuters (RTR) business news.
Vodafone (VOD) wins right to be second mobile phone operator in Qatar.
Banks to raise cost of credit.
Energy demand increases faster in China.
Morgan Stanley issues recession alert for US.
US FED expected to cut interest rates by 25-basis points today.
US October pending home sales rise 0.6%, second increase in a month.