Wednesday, January 30
His take on the S&P500 for the next couple of weeks is that things will be pretty easy. He expects a rally for 3 or 4 or 7 or 12 trading days – but in any case no more than 12 days (we have already had 3 days). The important resistance level is 1378 – 1385 – we should get to that level within 7 – 12 days then retest the lows. Market will test highs and then if it turns down it could runddown to the exhaustion low around 1260. That should hold the market together for a few weeks or months – once the testing is complete then there should be a rally of 45 – 60 or 90 days – if this is bear trend then that will be the end of the rally – he still expects to see significant lows sometime in Q1 2008. He actually expects the market to move sideways for a couple of weeks and not rally more than 12 days (i.e. another 9 days maximum).
Home : Buy Stocks Online
Friday, January 25
Sell – Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA), Imagination Technologies (IMG), LSL Property Services (LSL).
Lonmin (LMI) – Best avoided.
Misys (MSY) – Sell at 173p.
Cable & Wireless (CW.) – Hold.
Tiddler to Watch:
China Eastsea Business Software (CESG).
Carphone Warehouse (CPW) down 4.25p to 287.75p after Goldman places 1.3% of the company at 275p.
Coal International (CLN) up 8.75p to 27p after bid approach.
Regal (Petroleum (RPT)) progress, at last.
In bids, three is a crowd.
Investors shy away from Cadbury (CBRY) due to rise in cost of ingredients.
Curidium (CUR) off to good start.
Takeover talk sends Xstrata (XTA) up.
Severfield-Rowen (SFR) – Hold.
Clipper Windpower (CWP) – Hold.
3i (III) – Buy.
Vodafone (VOD) up on talk of US operation sale.
Cable & Wireless (CW.) – Hold.
Helical Bar (HLCL) – Buy.
Curidium Medica (CUR) – Broker believes its could be worth five times yesterday’s value of £15 million.
SocGen (SGN) could be takeover target after fraud disaster.
Big banks lead Footsie revival.
Was world market panic set off by France’s rogue trader?
Oil and gas demand will overtake supply within 7-years, says Shell CEO.
ECB board at war over rate cut, says minister.
UK Capital Gains reforms and general incompetence have damaged relations with Government, says CBI.
Nikkei up 4% Hong Kong up 6.7%.
Analysts just been speaking on CNBC inc. Roger Nightingale who talks a lot of sense
Roger Nightingale from Pointon York
Q : Which of the central banks has performed best ?
Bank of England has messed up on every front they are useless and should be sacked
European Central Bank is totally clueless
FED is the only bank that deserves any respect
Q : Interest rates ?
Moral hazard question ? He is not trying to bail out investors by suggesting interest rates need to be lowered – but the economy is being driven into recession possibly even depression – in 1929/30 they raised interest rates precisely to create higher sense of morality – result was depression – they did a terrible job and it didn’t work. You can punish investors in other ways, by taxation or regulation – at this moment in time interest rates need to be cut
Q : Banks ?
Optimistic on banks – but HSBC is accident prone
Top tip : Banks but not yet – leave it a couple of weeks – wait until interest rates start coming down
John Haynes – Rensburg Sheppard
Near-term oil prices should be quite a bit lower – long-term they will head up
Q : Should short selling be abolished ?
Yes, but it won’t happen – could however create a more level playing field
Q : RBS ? Needs a rights issue it will therefore underperform – prefers HSBC
Top Tip : – buy quality stuff that is cheaper than it was 3 months ago
Scotsman Capital Management
This is a rally in a bear market – need to see if volume stays strong – has a feeling we have made a bit of a turn but will probably re-test lows – hard to see stocks down while FED is in action - but FED needs to do more – to create jobs – next Friday’s jobs numbers will be important
Q : Banking stocks ?
Buying Bank of America at the moment – trading at 9 times earnings – valuations are getting very attractive
We are approaching peak oil – price will be down short-term but long term much higher
Top tip : US financials – Bank of America – buy what acted poorly last year – financials – perhaps avoid energy – also buy hard core techs Cisco IBM Microsoft etc.. good long term bets
UPDATE - They all got it wrong - Ed.
Thursday, January 24
According to some, it seems that the FED may have been ‘mugged’ as a result of Société Générale’s huge firesale of stock futures, after it found out that a rogue trader had misplaced $7 billion of the bank’s money.
The question now raised is whether the Fed was tricked into a panic move due to the trades undertaken by Socgen to clean up after their huge losses. The dramatic falls on the stockmarkets on Monday could have been in large part due to Socgen’s actions. It would seem strange, however, that the FED would not have been informed, unless of course the French had some sort of gripe against the US ? But that's hardly credible is it ? It might also explain Trichet's hardline attitude against reducing interest rates. Perhaps he was privy to information that the FED didn't 'need to know'
One London-based hedge fund manager (not me) said “It is clear that the Fed was panicked into a 75 basis point rate cut by the actions of a rogue trader and the bank’s unwinding of his positions. The action also clearly suggests that their French and ECB counterparts did not tell them what had happened at SocGen.”
Others disagree and state that a market slump was already in progress for different causes.
The SocGen trades on Monday are thought to have amounted to about 10 per cent of the volume, but that still leads 90% unaccounted for.
Asia however was already falling heavily before SocGen’s actions, which incidentally did not involve any Asian exposure. SocGen does not accept that it contributed to the slump in the markets. This seems a little naïve given the size of their recovery operations
Philippe Collas, Head of Asset Management told Bloomberg “It’s not possible that our covering operations contributed to the market’s fall.” That is clearly ridiculous how could such significant operations not contribute ?
Others believe however that the real catalyst was the possible collapse of the bond insurance, or monoline, sector.
Fitch downgraded Ambac late on Friday, leading US insurers and financial stocks slumped in afternoon trading while Europe and Asia were closed.
That might explain 1% of the falls, but the DAX fell 7% while the FTSE fell over 5% - so a bit of an overreaction there if that really was the reason !
Personally I blame the French, plus market manipulators in London, but I’m biased. Still, it all seems a bit overdone and I suspect people were just panicking because everyone else was, with a bit of luck we are now nearer the bottom, which may explain the funny smell !
Online Stock Trades - French rogue trader loses bank $7.4 billion - but the bank still makes a profit !
How many others will start to come out of the woodwork ? Apparently he was totally anonymous due to electronic trading so nobody could see what he was doing. Rumours are starting to arise to the effect that it was Societe Generale dumping stock on Monday which caused the dramatic falls in the stockmarkets and ultimately forced the FED to lower their rates.
[Stop Press: According to the latest news from that other well-known financial institution The Financial Times (no relation to The Financial Mites) - the rogue trader is no longer anonymous - his name is Jerome Kerviel.]
Societe Generale the second largest French bank today owned up to the fact that it had lost over $7 billion due to ‘junior rogue trader’ who gambled it away. [Just keep playing red it will win eventually I guess – Ed.]
The bank said the futures trader ‘fooled investors’ and ‘overstepped his authority’.
They have been forced to seek new capital of more than $8 billion as a result.
Societe Generale's have lost nearly half their value over the past six months, although so ha just about every other bank, was suspended on the Paris stock exchange.
The bank detected the fraud last weekend.
In a statement it saiud the fraud was "exceptional in its size and nature."
Apparently a trader at the futures desk had misled investors through 2007 and 2008 via a "scheme of elaborate fictitious transactions." (I wonder if that was the guy who keeps phoning me up ?)
The unnamed trader, was able to hide what he was doing by maing use of the group's security systems (hmmm not very secure then ?).
He confessed to the fraud and he and his supervisors are being dismissed.
The crisis may weaken the Societe Generale enough to make it a takeover target.
CEO Daniel Bouton offered his resignation but this was rejected.
The fraud appears to be the largest ever by a single trader even larger than Nick Leeson’s back in 1995 that bankrupted Barings.
Leeson lost $1.6 billion on Asian futures markets, wiping out the cash reserves and subsequently the bank itself which had trading for over 230 years.
It is not as big however as the 1991 scandal that led to the end of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International which allegedly exceeded $10 billion.
At Societe Generale, the fraud is in addition to subprime difficulties which have already cost it almost $3 billion.
The company will still have a net profit of around $1 billion for 2007 !
The Bank of France is investigating. The French market regulator said ‘no comment’. As did France's Banking Federation ! So that’s alright then. Everything is hunkydory.
I would guess that there are probably more such rogue traders out there who are keeping their heads low - but that's just a guess, based on my excellent knowledge of human nature !
Wednesday, January 23
Friday, January 18
I don't often get angry. In fact that is one of my great faults, I am the most laid back guy you could ever find, so laid back in fact I often have difficulty making myself vertical in the morning ! But today I am absolutely livid ! Fuming, in fact, so much so that my blood pressure might suffer as a result ! Angry and very annoyed that I have been forced to spend many hours battling against a mixture of incompetence and bad faith.
TDWaterhouse have just written me the most arrogant and exasperating letter it has ever been my misfortune to read ! The reason I am angry ? TDWaterhouse's inability, or unwillingness, to accept a simple fact. They made a mistake !
It is a long and complex story but please read it, as you may be able to help me in my battle against their generalized incompetence and/or lack of good faith.
The story starts late on a Friday afternoon back in September 2007 when I tried to place a sell order online using TDWaterhouse's realtime online trading system. Unfortunately, the sell order I tried to place, didn't go through, so I had to hold the stock over the weekend and sell on Monday. This resulted in a loss.
I shrugged my shoulders and told myself "oh well next time I'll need to be more careful" (or words to that effect). It was only a few days later that I realized that the reason the sell order didn't go through was not because I had made a mistake, but, it would appear, there had been a problem with the TDWaterhouse site (which I discovered but which TDWaterhouse refuse to accept) and if this problem had not existed then I would have closed my order and saved myself some money and co-incidentally a lot aggravation and worry.
When I realized what had, in fact, happened with the TDWaterhouse site I naturally, being a laid back sort of guy, wrote to them explaining the situation, in the naive belief that they would look at the facts objectively, and logically conclude, given the facts I placed before them, that yes indeed there had been a problem and that they were very sorry for the inconvenience caused and that they would therefore, as a gesture of goodwill without any admission of liability etc... etc... refund the money I had lost as a result of their apparent mistake, and that would be the end of the matter. They could have quietly fixed the problem that I had taken the effort to point out to them, nobody would have been any the wiser and we would all have lived happily ever after ! Unfortunately it seems that I read too many fairy tales as a kid ! And this happy scenario proved just a lot of wishful thinking on my part !
I have so far written to the TDWaterhouse Customer Service department three times, at length, clearly laying out the facts, yet each time my claims have been met with a mixture of incredulity, disbelief, insinuations, indifference and possibly even 'economy with the truth' (this last part is of course difficult to prove).
I have consistently provided them with documentary evidence of the error that appeared to exist in their system and they have consistently refused to accept that there was anything wrong with their software, preferring instead to impugn my motives.
A strange event took place, however, the apparent error that I brought to their attention and that they say never existed, has been miraculously corrected ! Allelujah ! A miracle ! It was corrected in fact at some time on or around 28th September - one week after my initial letter to them. How fortuitous ! Pure coincidence no doubt, the Lord does indeed work in myterious ways ! But TDWaterhouse continue to insist that there was nothing wrong with their system. As I asked them in my third letter 'If it wasn't broke, why did you fix it?' - they didn't bother to answer that one, I'm not even sure if they bothered to read it either.
They have refused to admit any error on their part and have also of course refused to make any refund. They blame me for not closing my open position and now tell me to get in touch with the Financial Ombudsman, which I shall do given their obstinate and ostrich-like refusal to accept the evidence placed before their eyes, no doubt in the belief that all they need to do is deny that something exists for it to not exist ! Reality however is not like that.
I demonstrated to them quite plainly that a + b = c but their argument is a + b = whatever we want it to equal, so if you're not happy take it up with the Ombudsman. [Update : I did take it up with the Ombudsman and I was not at all surprised to discover, this was a total waste of time, he basically asked TDWaterhouse if they had made a mistake and they said 'no your honour, certainly not'. He also informed me however that if there was a mistake with the TDWaterhouse software then he was not the person I should have contacted, I should have contacted the FSA instead. This may explain why TDWaterhouse invited me on more than one occasion to contact the Ombudsman, but never invited me to contact the FSA.]
As the sum of money involved is quite small (£1,000 or $2,000) I can only assume that they are refusing to accept that they were at fault as they fear this might leave them open to many more claims from other clients if the nature of the problem were to become public knowledge. At this point in time the money is no longer my primary concern, what I am concerned with is honesty and justice and discovering how many other people lost money at the same time as me. There may be many thousands of people who have lost money as a result of the same event that happened to me ! I trust that if there are, then I will be able to find some of them and alert as many people as possible to the situation.
I do not believe, given the nature of the problem I encountered, that I could have been the only one to have lost money, though I may be the only one so far who has discovered why my trade was rejected when it should have been accepted. If you have had problems with the TDWaterhouse online system you may need to check your order slips.
Before I reveal the exact nature of the problem encountered with their online trading system, I would like to invite other clients of TDWaterhouse to get in touch if they noticed anything odd about any trades they placed or tried to place online with TDWaterhouse up to and including the 27th September 2007, particularly online trades towards the close of play at 4.30 p.m., which were rejected when you thought they should have been accepted.
If you did encounter such problems, then please leave a message in the comments section below.
Some people may be of the belief that TDWaterhouse is a very large online stockbroking firm with an impeccable reputation and that surely their software is beyond reproach, infallible and beyond all possibility of error. The facts are not quite so rosy - please take a look at this article published in the New York Times describing how TDWaterhouse was fined $250,000 by the New York Stock Exchange -TDWaterhouse Fined for Online Trading Problems
Please leave comments and questions below, particularly if you noticed problems with trades up to and including 27th September 2007.
Online Stock Trades - Stock Market News - Rentokil Buyout RumoursThere are rumours of a management buyout for UK company Rentokil (RTO) whose shares have slumped almost 40% since November 2007. The rumoured price for the buyout is 155p which would be a 33% increase over yesterday's price of 104p.
3 Month Candlestick Chart
Stock Market News
Buy – Renishaw (RSW), STM, Aukett Fitzroy Robinson (AUK).
Sell – Amec (AMEC), Rentokil (RTO), Horizon Technology (HOR).
Buy – Coda (CODA), Tanfield (TAN), Galliford Try (GFRD), Venture Production (VPC), Balfour Beatty (BBY).
Sell – Rightmove (RMV).
Good value – Vantis (VTS), Goodwin (GDWN).
Fairly Priced – IG Group (IGG), Stonemartin (SOA).
Buy - Triple Plate (TPJ), VTR (VTR), Coffee Republic (CFE), Uruguay Mineral Exploration (UGY), Indian Film Company (IFC), United Carpets (UCG), Southern Bear (STBR), Travelzest (TVZ), Jacques Vert (JQV).
Barratt Developments (BDEV) - Buyers may return to Barratt, for dividend cover, will yield 9% but volatile times ahead .
HMV (HMV) – Avoid.
Diploma (DPLM) – Hold
Tiddler to Watch:
Providence Resources (PVR) rumoured to be close a new licence from the Irish Government for further exploration of the Atlantic off the west coast of Ireland - with ExxonMobil.
Enterprise Inns (ETI) says outlook for pubs is gloomy
Falkland Gold (FGML) abandons drilling search.
British Land (BLND) rises on Morgan Stanley property upgrade.
Northumbrian Water (NWG) up on rumours it could be acquired by infrastructure fund.
Minerva (MVA) up on LeFrank links.
Barratt Developments (BDEV)– Hold.
Portland Gas (PTG) – Very speculative.
Inchcape (INCH)– Buy.
Rentokil (RTO) rises on buyout speculation.
Barratt Developments (BDEV)– Hold.
Misys (MSY) - Hold.
Wolfson Micro (WLF) up on rumours.
Rentokil (RTO) ahead on buyout rumours.
Rentokil (RTO) up on buyout talk.
OTHER BID NEWS
Virgin to improve Northern Rock (NRK) bid
HSBC (HSBA) to list in China if restrictions lifted
Merrill Lynch posts record $9.8-billion loss in Q4
Bernanke in favour of quick rescue package ! (only 6 months too late)
HMV (HMV) posts best-ever Christmas sales despite widespread retail glooom
Sub-prime losses may be as high as $500 billion
Thursday, January 17
Ceres (CWR), Energetik, Anite (AIE), Civica (CIV), Scisy (SSY), ZincOx (ZOX), Vodafone, Cable & Wireless (CW.), Balfour Beatty (BBY), Premier Oil (PMO), Close Bros (CBG), Ideal Shopping (IDS), N Brown (BWNG), Lokn Store (LOK), Duke Energy, Newmont Mining, United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE).
Hold – Nikanor (NKR), Bglobal (BGBL), BT (BT.A).
Sell – Paragon (PAG), Regent Inns (REG).
Avoid – Northern Rock (NRK), ScS (SUY), Sports Cafe (suspended) (SCA).
Plays of the Week:
Buy – SDL (SDL), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).
Hold - Randgold (RRS).
British Airways (BAY) – Buy.
UK Coal (UKC) – Hold.
ClinPhone (CNP)- Hold.
Insurance racket - FSA attacks HSBC (HSBA) over its ‘payment protection insurance’.
Punch Taverns (PUB)– Hold.
Woolworths (WLW) – Avoid.
Chagala - Buy.
Tiddler to Watch: Wynnstay (WYN).
Experian (EXPN) – Avoid.
Character Group (CCT) – Hold.
ClinPhone (CNP) – Hold.
Foreign investment talk boosts British Airways (BAY).
Talk of a contract win for Software Radio Technology.
Broker’s alert trips up Cable & Wireless (CW.).
At a Glance: Character (Group) (CCT) comeback.
Punch (PUB) drops on warning on sales and future
Rio Tinto (RIO ) declares record output
Experian (EXPN) difficult conditions will continue
Woolworths (WLW) drops after weak Christmas
Mothercare (MTC) rebounds - ELC deal helps sales
Japan on verge of crash
Dolcis to call in administrators
Persimmon (PSN) closes offices on fears of industry slowdown
OFGEM says £9-billion electricity profits should be clawed back to help people in trouble with fuel bills. (! - I must be dreaming - I'll wake up in a minute)
Japan unnerved by latest subprime fears.
Tuesday, January 15
It also announced a writedown of $18.1 billion due to the mortgage fiasco and a 41% reduction in its dividend. It will also be receiving $12.5 billion from investors, in Singapore, the state of New Jersey and Kuwait.
The results are the first quarterly loss since Citicorp and Travelers Group merged back in 1998.
Reported revenue was $7.2 billion for the quarter, a drop of 70% last year.
The results were far worse analysts expected. It was anticiapted that the company would report a loss of $1 a share on revenue of $10.64 billion.
Monday, January 14
CEO Andy Kuipers said in a letter to senior staff that the board of directors had agreed "an enhanced remuneration package" for employees deemed "essential to our continuing excellent operational performance". Absolutely bloody amazing ! Just which 'excellent operational performance' are they talking about !? The one that destroyed the bank or the secret wheeze to pay themselves with other people's money ?
Kuipers then goes on to stress that the "arrangement" is only for the inner circle not for the plebs it "will not be offered to the generality of staff and, as such, must remain absolutely confidential to yourself and not be discussed with others.
"If you do discuss the existence of this bonus to any third party then you will forfeit your entitlement."
How can they make secret bonuses? Isn't that illegal - don't they have company accounts to draw up ? Words fail me so I won't ramble on, except to say that the gall of these people makes me sick, but clearly they couldn't give a sh*t about anything or anyone except their own troughs.
Friday, January 11
The average for 2007 for each domain in the top 100 is therefore $426,825, which compares with $297,750 in 2006. This is an increase in prices paid of 43.3% over one year.
These names are of course the top 100, name such as porn.com, computer.com and seniors.com but there is no reason to believe that price rises for the rest of the domain name market have not been of a similar degree of magnitude. You can invest in domain names by buying expensive names for thousands or tens of thousands of dollars or you can start at the bottom of the ladder with names that you can register for as little as $4. These names can then be 'parked' with parking companies such as Namedrive where they will bring in revenue from ads. while you wait for the price to appreciate.
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Stock Market News
Bank of America will buy Countrywide for $4bn, which people are saying seems a bad deal for BoA but a good deal for Countrywide unless there are terms to protect Bank of America from various unknown 'timebombs'.
They are bying it at 7.16 dollars per share in BoA shares. So Countrywide shareholders may not be too pleased.
Supposition by some is that the government has leant upon BoA to buy it - although others disagree and see this as a good deal for BoA at 0.3 times book value.
BoA says nobody twisted their arm.
Thursday, January 10
Domain names represent a very good alternative or additional investment. If you manage to pick up a good domain name, which generally means a generic dotcom such as dollars.com, sportinggoods.com or supplies.com the chances are that in one or two years time you will have doubled or tripled your money or more. By way of illustration dollars.com recently sold for $650,000, sportinggoods.com sold for $450,000 and supplies.com sold for $323,350.
These were important sales last year but by no means the highest. The highest were porn.com for $9.5 million, computer.com for $2.1 million and seniors.com for $1.8 million. Often these names link to developed websites but at times they merely link to a 'parked' page with relevant ads. that bring in revenue when people click on them.
It's not easy to find such high selling names, unless of course you have a lot of cash available and are willing to buy the name as an investment to be sold in a couple of years time at a much higher price, but you can start with more modest ambitions, either paying a couple of hundred or couple of thousand dollars for a less valuable name, or registering a name from scratch for $10.
Once you have bought the name you want, rather than just waiting for the price to appreciate you can either develop a website around the name or merely 'park' the name with a parking company such as Namedrive. This parking company will then display ads under your domain name and you get a share of the revenue each time someome clicks on one of the ads.
Signing up with a parking company is free and you can leave your name with them as long as you like. You can also try to sell your domain names on domain name forums such as Namepros or even on Ebay. To sell your name for a higher price you generally need to use a professional auction site such as Sedo or Afternic or take part in a 'live' domain name auction organized in Las Vegas or similar venues.
Do not be tempted to buy trademark names or names that are too similar to well-known names e.g. Microsofft as you would probably find yourself facing court action quite quickly.
There are many extensions to domain names but .com is by far the most popular and profitable, the only problem being that most of the good names are already very expensive, so you might also like to consider alternative extensions such as .in, .tv or .mobi which are increasing in popularity.
As a general rule prices for domain names are going up, for the simple reason that although there may be a lot of them there is not in fact an infinite supply of good names, 3 letter names and 4 letter names are in very short supply just by the sheer mathematics of the situation.
For information on how one man became a multimillionaire by buying and selling domain names check out - Domain Name Millionaire Kevin Ham
There is of course some work involved but it is basically gaining information and knowledge of what sort of names are popular and therefore worth buying. Much like researching companies on the stockmarket. It also needn't cost vast sums of money, although if you do have a lot of money available then you will be able to buy the more valualble dotcoms and hold on to them. But it would be worth while making sure you really understand the market before you commit large amounts of cash.
Comments or question are most welcome and if you want to know more about parking domain names then check out NameDrive
make money online from domain names
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domain name auctions
Stores and companies who take your money, then make a mistake or deliberately try to cover up their shady practices should be avoided at all costs. We here at the Financial Mites are embroiled in a similar situation at the moment with our evil brokers, the dastardly wastrels.
To see a picture of the Trading Goddess and read her account of the disgraceful service 'provided' by 1-800-FLOWERS please take a peek here Trading Goddess - Pretty in Pink
Buy – Central Rand Gold (CRND), Tesco (TSCO).
Take profits – Medusa Mining (MML).
M&S (MKS) shares plunge 17% after first quarter fall in like-for-like sales.
Shares in UK housebuilders seem to show that the UK is indeed the 51st state, as the sector tracks its US counterpart.
Carphone (CPW) and M&S (MKS) plunge on fears for retailers.
Profit warning fears drive Aga Foods (AGA) down 9.6%.
Lehman starts coverage of D1 Oils (DOO) with 'underperform' causing shares to fall 6.2%.
Marks & Spencer (MKS) – Hold.
Restaurant Group (RTN) - Buy.
Aricom (ORE) - Buy.
Fears of a recession increase after FTSE 250 hits lowest in 15 months.
Tiddler to Watch:
Entertainment One (ETO).
Greggs (GRG) – will probably reap benefits of trading down from higher price. Rexam (REX) – Buy.
Computacenter (CCC) – Avoid.
Tui (TUI) down in jittery market.
Daniel Stewart 90p target for Nighthawk (HAWK), oil explorer is undervalued they say.
Rumours that Amerisur Resources (AMER) will announce a major oil discovery.
Restaurant Group (RTN) – Buy.
Vantis (VTS) – Hold.
Greggs (GRG) – Hold.
Bid talk around Mitchells & Butlers (MAB).
COMMENT AND BID NEWS
M&S (MKS) has worst day since Rose took over.
The Indians are coming for Burren (BUR) despite Eni's agreed offer.
BP (BP.) forecasts slashed by analysts.
GIC of Singapore accumulate big stake in British Land (BLND).
Persimmon's forward sales fall 14% .
Tough year expected by Restaurant Group.
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) initiates ‘urgent action’ and cuts payments to contractors.
Patientline’s (PTL) life in hands of banks.
Goldman says recession is imminent.
JJB (JJB) to offer compensation to victims of price-fixing.
St Pancras boom caused by Eurostar.
Tuesday, January 8
Nothing to do with the stockmarket but just a thought that keeps trotting through my simple mind.
Barack Obama said of his father that he was "black as pitch", while his mother was "white as milk", which makes Barack Obama himself just as much a white man as a black man, yet people insist on describing him as black.
The New York Times says he was "the first black president" of the Harvard Law Review in its 104 year history. They might just as well have said the first "white president" given that he is just as much white as black.
No doubt if he becomes President of the United States then he will also be described as the "first black president" ! My simple point is that he is no more black than he is white. Am I alone in having such heretical thoughts ?
AsianLogic (ALOG) has been rated a ‘speculative buy’ at 112p
by AllNewIssues.com - 07/01/08 (aren’t they all speculative buys ?) -
Online gambling companies were very much in vogue not so long ago, until the US decided to protect its citizens from the evil that is online gambling by arresting various CEOs of non-US online gambling companies in the name of morality, good clean Christian values and apple pie. This decision had nothing to do, of course, with protecting the freedom of Americans to gamble away their hard-earned dollars to their heart's content at Las Vegas and elsewhere and nothing to do with the fact that nearly all online gambling companies are non-US, thus taking money out of the country and out of the pockets of the US gambling industry. Perish the thought ! Americans must at all costs be protected from the temptation to send their dollars out of the country. Online porn of course is a different kettle of fish, as most online porn comes from the USA so high moral standards are naturally maintained effortlessly without the need for protection.
AsianLogic, to get back to the point in hand, is a gaming company which joined the AIM on December 28 and at the same time raised £40.7 million by placing 48.5 million new shares at 111.62p. The shares are now trading at 112p, which values the business at £123.5 million.
According to allnewissues, ALOG with its established presence in the Asian market, its experienced management team and new money in the bank, has excellent prospects, especially when you take into account the predicted growth in the Asian gambling market. The Asian online gambling market was worth around $1.56 billion in 2007 and is expected to double by 2012. This represents a compounded annual growth of 15.9%. It is estimated that Asian online casinos will grow at approximately 28.3% p.a., whereas elswhere in the world growth is expected to be in single digits.
The company has been growing strongly and the balance sheet shows $3.1 million of cash in the bank with minimal debt. The company has stated that trading has been in line with expectations since the end of June 2007 and the online gambling business is contiuing to grow.
AsianLogic trades on a historic multiple of around 90 times ! Earnings are set to rocket however over the next few years. The company is listed offshore and therefore pays very little tax (less than 1%).
Given that shares are expected to trade on a p.e. multiple of around 9 x earnings, allnewissues.com says they look good value, with an expected dividend yield of 6% in 2008 which increases the shares’ attractiveness.
Stock Market News
Some broker share tips and updates which may influence the market.
Bear Sterns reiterates outperform on Shire Pharmaceuticals (SHP) and BT (BT.A) (2008 price target of 406p).
Deutsche Bank reiterates hold on LogicaCMG (LOG) (but cuts price target from 170p to 145p and reduces estimates), also says hold Misys (MSY) and buy Sage (SGE).
They have also reviewed UK Pub Stocks, and reiterates their buy on Enterprise Inns (ETI) and hold on Mitchells & Butlers (MAB), Marstons (MARS) (but cuts the price target from 430p to 400p) and JD Wetherspoon (JDW), whilst they have buy recommendations on Greene King (GNK), Punch Taverns (PUB) and Whitbread (WTB).
Credit Suisse reviews European Telecoms and downgrades sector from overweight to market-weight.
They have also downgraded Liberty International (LII) from neutral to underperform.
Merrill downgrades Petrofac (PFC) from buy to neutral.
Citigroup downgrades Keller Group (KLR) from buy to hold.
UBS downgrades Johnston Press (JPR) from neutral to sell and Yell (YELL) from neutral to sell (price target cut from 430p to 330p).
Monday, January 7
Another Reason to Buy Google?Google has now teamed up with Matsushita to develop Internet-enabled plasma TV s, Matsushita, the world's largest consumer electronics maker, and Google and YouTube have joined forces to manufacture flat panel TVs to allow users to watch videos online.
Internet-enabled plasma TVs are expected to reach US stores this spring. Matsushita's Panasonic TVs will provide one-touch remote control Internet access to YouTube and Google's Picasa photo-sharing site. Matsushita is expected to monitor sales of the TVs, along with the development of copyright management systems, before deciding whether it will be worthwhile selling the TVs outside the US.
The chart looks a bit toppy to my untrained eye but Google seems intent on world domination so who knows, if it drops back to 500 it might be worth a punt?
Friday, January 4
Art Hogan Sees Buying Opportunity in Stockmarkets
Earlier in the day Art Hogan of Jefferies said on CNBC that today would represent a buying opportunity in stockmarkets as he sees this reaction to the non-farm payrolls as overdone.
He has just been back on CNBC and has slightly modified that stance saying that sometime next week will represent a buying opportunity. What he said :
- First uptick in unemployment rate in 2 years
- No inflationary pressure in wage numbers
- Calmer reaction should ensue some time next week
- FED may do 50 point interest rate cut at end of month
- Similar move in discount rate
- Show they are tring to create soft landing
- Jobs have been created in service sector -
- 6 - 9 months after FED cutting rates economy should start to improve Q3 2008 should show turnaround
Other people on CNBC have been saying the same thing, seeing next week or two as the time to be buying shares, but maybe not today.
Investors Chronicle Share Picks for 2008
Top picks for 2008
Vodafone (VOD), Mouchel Parkman (MCHL), Halma (HLMA), Ferrexpo (FXPO), ICAP (IAP), European Goldfields (EGU), PV Crystalox Solar (PVCS) and SSP (SSPH).
Tempus: for Tempus' share picks for 2008 see - Tempus Share Picks 2008
CRH (CRH) – hold.
Autonomy (AU.) – hold.
Majestic Wine (MJW) – avoid.
Tiddler to Watch:
Tertiary Minerals (TYM).
Scottish & Newcastle (SCTN) falls as takeover hopes recede.
Norseman Gold (NGL) rose 1.125p to 10.5p amid rumours of bid interest.
CRH (CRH) – Hold.
Inmarsat (ISAT) – Buy.
BATM (BVC) - Buy.
Xstrata (XTA) shares rise as speculation grows of Vale offer.
Primark (ABF) bubble may be set to pop.
Artillium (ARTA) fell back yesterday, in spite of speculation that performance was better than expectations.
CRH (CRH) planning takeovers.
Credit crunch increases Persimmon’s (PSN) troubles.
Chinese state investor takes stakes in Australian lenders.
Grains hit new highs as oil price surges.
Majestic (MJW) says price of wine set to rise.
Acambis (ACM) discloses positive results in trial of flu vaccine.
Spending on waste disposal will help aid Biffa (BIFF) and Shanks (SKS).
DSG (DSGI) at twelve year low after profit warning hits retailers.
Rates need to fall to 4.5% to prevent hard landing.
Spending on online ads will overtake TV next year, says WPP (WPP).
BoE may be forced to ease the squeeze.
Oil may hit $110 a barrel, some say $175 this year.
Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee win the Iowa caucuses John Edwards came second for Democrats with Hillary Clinton back in third place.
Newspaper stock picks for 2008
Newspaper Share Picks 2008 Expert Share Tips 2008 More Share Tips 2008 More Stock Tips 2008 Two Stock Tips 2008
Art Hogan from Jefferies has just been on CNBC talking about the stockmarket reaction to today’s jobs data (which weren’t good). The futures and European stockmarkets dropped sharply after the data were released. As I have said before Art Hogan is one market ‘expert’ I listen to carefully as he has an uncanny knack of knowing what the markets will do. Maybe he controls so much money he can move markets ?
He said he was surprised at the magnitude of market reaction to jobs data – things will get better in second half of this year so he is surprised the market is not taking that into account – he says there will probably be an overreaction at the open which will probably create a buying opportunity. You heard it here first (maybe) so at least you can see if he was right.
Still likes energy due to global demand outpacing new supply in 2008 and 2009
Thursday, January 3
Barack Obama and Huckabee Win Iowa Caucuses with 37%
Is this the end for Hillary Clinton ? Unlikely. But victory for Obama is quite extraordinary. Clinton needs to win in New Hampshire. If Obama appears likely to be a winner the black voters could start supporting him more clearly.
Given that one of his parents is white and the other one is black he is in fact just as much white as he is black.
Both Obama and Huckabee represent a vote for change.
At the moment it looks like Edwards will be second with Clinton third with
Wednesday, January 2
Tempus is a highly respected stock picker who writes for The Times in the UK .
His top ten share tips for 2008 have been published as follows
BPP Holdings 621p
Capita Group 698p
Johnston Press 275p
Keller Group 664p
Northern Foods 94p
Smith & Nephew 580p
Smiths Group £10.13
Wolfson Microelectronics 207p
I find his most intriguing share tip to be BPP Holdings which provides law and accountancy courses and in September 2007 became the first private sector company in the UK to be granted the right to award degrees. This is a significant change but the share price has moved down since then. The grant however according to Tempus 'opens up a market for undergraduate and postgraduate qualifications three times the size of its present professional exams business'. BPP has also, as a consequence, become a target for American education groups keen to penetrate Her Majesty's education system, as it would be a cheap way to avoid having to go through the three-year application process.
1 Year Candlestick Chart
Tuesday, January 1
Stock Market Share Tips
AssetCo, BPP Holdings, Capita Group, Johnston Press,
Keller Group, Northern Foods, Rexam, Smith & Nephew,
Smiths Group, Wolfson Micro
Rolls-Royce, EnCore Oil, GlaxoSmithKline, Balfour Beatty, Immunodiagnostic Systems, Albidon, Playtech, Lloyds TSB, Mothercare
Faroe Petroleum, Compass Group, Hikma Pharma, Hammerson, Coda, Legal & General
Aero Inventory, Amec, Aricom, Barclays, Modern Water, Reckitt Benckiser, Redrow, Rolls-Royce, Tesco, VT Group
That makes 4 recommendations for Glaxo so far. For all recommendations see the posts below :
Newspaper Share Picks 2008 Expert Share Tips 2008 More Share Tips 2008 More Stock Tips 2008 Two Stock Tips 2008
The Stock Market
European shares are expected to fall this morning in first trading session of the New Year, after a 100 point drop on Wall Street on Monday following disappointing economic figures.
The FTSE 100 is expected to open around 43 points lower.
Santander, the Spanish bank which previously held unsuccessful takeover talks with Alliance & Leicester, may resumie negotiations with AL. according to the Financial Times. In December the deal fell through due to disagreements over the price but Santander is thought to be considering making an improved offer.
But David Buik has been on Bloomberg TV saying markets are a bit cynical, so AL. may rise 5p but not much more.
Survey of leading economists says Britain faces most difficult economic conditions since dotcom bubble burst, (so things will probably be OK – Ed.). Battery demand strengthens cobalt price
House prices look set to fall - Average UK home to lose about 4% in value. Hambro (POG) to enter FTSE 250 - Mining company looking to the main list this year.
Power firms get £6bn carbon 'handouts' under emissions regime.Gold predicted to have a good year as it approaches all-time high.BAE (BA.)in joint venture talks in India.
AL. share price weakness makes it a likely target, as it emerges it has held talks with Spain’s Santander.
Internet expected to provide up to 75% of advertising revenue growth, traditional media in stagnation mode.
Commercial property prices have fallen for first time in 15 years but sees as a correction, not a catastrophe.
The Stock MarketRoger Nightingale Global Strategist from Pointon York, someone I find who speaks a lot of sense, has just been on Bloomberg TV talking about prospects for the stockmarket 2008.
He says banks will bounce back, but ‘when’ is the question - [Well I'm afraid he got that all wrong - Ed.] . Said central banks are creating positive environment for banks to improve their profits and when bad debts have finally been written off markets will roar back. Now could be a good time to get back in but he prefers to wait for a few more really large write offs and scandals i.e. banks which have failed to report what they knew about - in mortgage area and structured products area in particular – some very ‘inventive’ people have created structured products which have gone wrong and some managers have let them carry on even though they knew they were going wrong . So at some time the brown stuff will hit the fan.
Sectors ? Positive on Hong Kong and Germany and oil stocks, plus tobacco companies – all negative pubicity has depressed their price and also costs as they can’t advertise; technology quite attractive, last year was good this year should be too, also telecomms, price cutting has stopped; - don’t bother with retailers for next 6 months numbers will be bad, not interested until 2009.
Further reading : Trade Stocks Online
Home : Stocks and Shares
The Stock Market Share Tips
The Independent is not expecting a recession next year and thinks natural resource companies will do well so they have chosen – BP and BG Group, which they say are undervalued.
BG Group's has its offshore discoveries in Brazil and also the possibility of corporate action due to the Chinese taking a significant stake. The Chinese also have an interest in BP.
They have also picked Standard Chartered (STAN) )this is the second tip for STAN), United Utilities (UU.), Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT), and Shire (SHP). – Standard Chartered as emerging markets will continue to prosper, United Utilities as it will be a target for funds, being a rarity as one of the only pure water companies. They say UU is an almost certain takeover candidate.
DMGT they say is seriously oversold and will remain a strong cash generator.
Shire, has both defensive and growth stock characteristics. Health care spending will continue to rise. Shire has excellent niche products and has avoided mass-market medicines.
They also recommend some smaller companies, including Proximagen Neurosciences, which is working to license therapeutics for diseases such as Parkinson's and Alzheimer's. Rumour has it that 2008 could be a landmark year.
It has fallen from a listing price of 154p in 2005, to 87.5p last year, but has rebounded and finished last year on an 18-month high, and recently turned down a takeover bid.
Rumours are of a lucrative buy-in and licensing deal, but it is a risky stock.
International Ferro Metals they recommend as a solid commodities stock. It has fallen 20% from its high, but they see it as undervalued with ferrochrome prices expected to remain at or near record highs.
AIM-listed Phorm Inc, develops internet-based advertising solutions. The shares slumped since raising capital but rumours are that some of these deals are close to completion. The company currently loses a lot more than it earns. Another risky tip.
They even say Northern Rock is worth a punt, as even if it is nationalised, it might be worth something. More high risk !
So to sum up : BP – BG - STAN - UU. – DMGT – SHP – IFL – PHRM – PRX - NRK
Out of the lot I would go with UU. -
1 Year Candlestick Chart
For all share recommendations discovered so far see the posts below :