Monday, 1 February 2010

Stock Market Charts Bearish Again

Buy Stocks Online - OTAPMA says Stock Markets Headed Lower -  Stock Charts look Weak

[UPDATE : The markets rose yesterday but are still below Oscar Carboni's OTAPMA (What is OTAPMA ? - Omni Trading Academy Proprietary Moving Average) (see video below) so he is still bearish and still selling rallies, although he will be letting the markets settle down a bit and may not be trading the indices today. Art Cashin is also pretty negative on the markets at the moment, saying we might see a 2 day rally but then we will move down again.]

The stock market today is currently higher at +90 on the DOW and +11 on the S&P. It has been in rally mode since March 2009 basically, but it would appear that the rally is finally running out of steam. The DOW is actually down 7% in under two weeks, January was a negative month. Toronto's S&P/TSX index is off 6% since Jan. 19. So is the time to buy stocks online ?

Technical analysts are saying that stock market trading patterns indicate the market is tired. Volumes are much higher on down days than on up days. If you are considering buying stocks online then you need to consider what chart analysts are saying.

One stock market analyst that I like to follow is day trader Oscar Carboni. Why do I like to listen to what he says ? Because he puts his neck on the line by putting out videos before the markets open and giving clear explanations and recommendations in a language I can understand ! I have found that he is also pretty accurate. He was bearish on the markets all the way down to the bottom in March 2009, he then became bullish again towards the end of March, went briefly bearish (a few days) back in November - see Oscar Carboni - but now (i.e. today Feb 1) has very definitely turned bearish on the markets again.

What does it mean for trading stocks or indices when he is bearish? Basically, he waits for the stock market to rally slightly then sells (shorts) the rally on the expectation that the rally will not hold and the markets will turn back down. After he has made a few points profit he closes his trade before the markets close for the day (he is a day trader after all). When he is bullish he does the opposite i.e. he waits for the market to drop then buys the dips. But as of now he is officially bearish again so he is selling this rally in the S&P.

He may be stopped out of his trades, as he has said to sell the S&P in the mid to high 1070s and at the moment the S&P is at 1085, so depending on where he has set his stop, he may be stopped out. Stops serve to limit losses and are essential when day trading, as you will never get all your trades right, so you must limit the losers and make the most from the winners.

Nevertheless he has turned bearish today and will continue to sell any rallies until the charts indicate that the markets have turned up again (which may be a few months away). In his analysis of the charts he relies heavily on what he calls the OMNI trading proprietary moving average (OTAPMA) and he shows (in the video below) that the markets have all broken down through this moving average which is why he has now turned bearish.

So take a look at the video - Oscar Carboni is nothing if not enthusiastic, I don't know where he gets his energy from but he's certainly got plenty of it.

I should point out that I am not a subscriber to any of Oscar's paid services, I just like to watch the free videos and in my experience he gets it right a lot more often than he gets it wrong.



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