Friday, February 26

Stock Market Today Crazy News

Stock Market Today - Stop Press the Stock Market is a Joke

Yesterday morning (26 February) the DOW was down around 188 points on bad news and the economy etc... etc... then for no reason and quite out of the blue the DOW and all the other stock markets rallied back around 150 points and finished the day just 50 points down.

So why did the stock market today rally 150 points in a few hours ? It seems that news came out of Germany that the Germans were going to help the Greeks - so all of a sudden everything was fine and people started buying back all the stocks they had been selling 5 minutes earlier. Except that the news wasn't true.

So why did they believe it was true ? - and this is where it gets really nutty - because their scrolling computer screens weren't big enough ! The end of the message that caused the rally got cut off - and the end of the message (that nobody saw) said that it was only 'advisors' that they were talking, there was no official statement about help for Greece at all. So the stock markets rallied 150 points on false news.

So today now that people know that the news was false, did the DOW slump back down 150 points ? Nope not a bit of it. It was all just forgotten.

Can we conclude that the stock  market is totally illogical and moves about with no rhyme or reason - or does it move to where the people who are in a position to actually move it want it to move ? Somebody decided to go long and decided to drive the markets up after they had gone long. Is it that simple ?

So what is the stock market doing today ? Advancers and decliners in the S&P 500 are almost equal.

The FTSE closed up 76 - the DOW is currently up 8 - volume is low - the weather is bad and the weekend is almost here. Will there be another computer screen message with no news to drive the markets down again ? You can't help reaching the conclusion that it's all a bit of a game.

The indices are mixed and confusing and not worth getting involved with right now.

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Time to buy Toyota Stocks?

Thursday, February 25

Time to Buy Toyota Stocks Yet?

Stocks and Shares - Is it Time to Buy Toyota Stocks Yet ?

You may not want to buy a Toyota car at the moment but you may be wondering should I buy Toyota stocks ? Are you thinking they may have fallen enough and are due a rebound ? I mentioned Toyota back at the beginning of February and wondered whether it was time to buy Toyota stocks, well I am still wondering. Here are a couple of charts - a 7 year chart followed by a 1 month chart both with 5 day, 50 day and 200 day moving averages.





As we can see the price was recovering but has fallen back below the 200 day moving average. So, as I consider this to be not a good sign, I wouldn't be a buyer until it got back above the 200 day m.a. - but that's just my opinion - I am not an expert or an advisor.

I wasn't too convinced either by Mr Toyoda or the American director that Toyota have sorted out the problems yet either.

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Wednesday, February 24

Stock Charts Looking Sick Again

Oscar Carboni Bearish Bullish and Bearish Again


Back at the beginning of February my favorite American day trader Oscar Carboni went bearish on the markets, then last weekend he went bullish again (almost) now Wednesday 24th he has gone sort of bearish again. So he will be selling rallies again instead of buying dips. Oscar Carboni has a free site - livewithoscar.com - and lots of free stock charting videos ! He bases his day trading on what he calls the OTAPMA (Omni Trading Academy Proprietary Moving Average) - the technical indicators have gone bearish again. In fact they keep jumping about all over the place - but have a look at his video to see Oscar's unique analysis of the charts.



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Tuesday, February 23

Stocks and Shares Tips in Newspapers

Stock Market News


Good stock trading tips in a video for trading the 200 day moving average - basically you look for stocks moving back up to their 200 daymoving average from beneath it. They tend to hit the 200 day m.a. then bounce down then move back up and this a good time to start buying - check out the video for full details on when to trade the stocks - this guy talks a lot of sense



Newspaper Stocks and Shares Tips Feb23

NB : For Sunday newspaper share tips see - Weekend Share Tips

The Times
Tempus Share Tips


Hammerson - A solid hold. - At 387½p, the shares provide a 4.1% yield while trading at an 8% discount to historic next asset value.

Pure Circle - wait - makes an alternative to sugar from a Chrysanthemum-like plant - At 238½p wait for more clarity from next month’s H2 results before buying

Hold - Animalcare - Shares in the seller of veterinary medicines and agricultural supplies have risen by 20% since the start of this year.

At 120p - 13 x earnings, they do not look stretched, but are likely to pause for breath. Hold

Rumour of the day
Tower Resources is prospecting for oil in Uganda - Tower shares rose yesterday 0.7p to 4.575p on speculation that test results within two weeks may be more positive than its dry first exploratory well

Deal of the day
Imaginatik rose 0.5p to 5p after adding Windsor Foods to a client list that already includes Pfizer and Xerox.

Tiddler to watch
ReNeuron fell 0.54p to 5.35p after placing 94.4 million new shares with institutions at 5p each. The £4.7 M raised will be used to fund trials of revolutionary ReN001 stem-cell treatment for stroke victims. Daniel Stewart, ReNeuron's broker, thinks ReN001 may one day be a blockbuster.

The Daily Telegraph
Questor Share Tips


BUY - Petra Diamonds at 59¼p
Petra Diamonds should bank a sizeable chunk of cash when it sells the prime family jewel – a 522 carat stone – at the end of this week.

The company is already producing valuable stones from high quality mines and says that increased production is possible from Cullinan, Koffiefontein, Williamson and Kimberley.

BUY Bunzl at 678p - Questor says more value can be achieved from the shares and Bunzl is highly acquisitive

****
See also Stocks and Shares for Beginners - for basic info about stock trading online

Saturday, February 20

Stocks and Shares for Beginners

Buy Stocks Online - Stocks and Shares for Beginners - the Basics

The basic low-down on how to buy stocks online. Trying to find information on the Internet about stocks and shares for beginners can be a frustrating experience. I know, I've just tried it ! You often click on a site that looks promising only to discover that there is nothing there of any use to beginners looking to buy stocks. This post, however, will provide you with basic information on trading stocks and shares if you are a beginner.
First things first, you will need a broker. Unless you are pretty wealthy to start with, go for a discount broker - they are cheap and cheerful but won't give you any advice, they just take your money, buy your stocks and shares and put them in your account, and do what you ask them to do (hopefully) usually automatically online but sometimes over the phone if you prefer. For discount brokers I always recommend steering clear of TDWaterhouse but apart from that take a look at this article - online brokers - which describes the various discount brokers around, what they offer and how much they charge to buy and sell your stocks ( a few dollars per trade usually).

Secondly, as a beginner you may be confused by the number of stocks available and wonder which stocks you should buy ? Well, you need to decide if you are a long-term investor or a short/medium-term trader. If you think you want to be a long-term investor then check out Warren Buffett and learn how he became a billionaire by buying stocks at good prices and holding them for a very long time. But be prepared to wait a few years - as Warren Buffett says "the stock market is a means for transferring money from the impatient to the patient".

If you are going to be a short or medium-term stock trader (a few days to a few months) then you really need to learn about stock charts and technical analysis. You can't just stick a pin in the Internet and hope to get lucky. Stock charts and technical analysis of charts are important for beginners starting to trade in stocks and shares as they can be used to show when is the right time to buy and when is the right time to sell. You don't need to know anything about the company whose shares you are trading, all you need to know is how to read stock charts and understand what the various indicators are telling you.

As a beginner it is important to learn about charts before trying your hand at share trading, because the professional traders use them and you need to be flowing with the professional stock traders not fighting against them.

Here are some absolute basics about stock market charts.

When online stock trading don't buy a stock whose price is below its 200-day moving average. It is generally a bad sign when a stock falls below its 200-day moving average and a sign that it is likely to fall even further, wait for it to get back above the 200-day moving average. What is a 200-day moving average ? Take a look at this chart of BP - the red line is the 200-day moving average and the blue line is the BP stock price. If you are thinking about buy BP stock then bear in mind it is generally not a good idea to buy a stock whose price is below its 200-day moving average.

BP 2 Year Chart with the 200 day movng average [UPDATE - the BP stock chart is now back avove its 200 day moving average so not so much of a risk as an investment as it was up until this point]


There are stock charts available fre for stock market beginners and experts on places like Yahoo finance. Just click on 'indicators' or 'moving averages' then type in 200. You should then see a stock chart or an index chart with the 200-day moving average plotted. One stock you can look at is MSFT - each stock has its own code.

Moving averages are just one of the techniques that analysts use to decide when is the optimum moent to buy or sell stocks (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day) are the most popular periods of time.

You also need to understand about support and resistance. If a stock price is falling, at some point it will fall back to a level where it meets with support and stabilize, by looking at the charts you can see when this support will be found and you can then start buying. Similarly when a stock price is rising, at some point it will meet with resistance and stop rising. This is the time to sell if you are a trader.

Short-term traders or swing traders are generally hoping to get a 10% profit from their stock trades so once they have made their 10% profit (or thereabouts) they close the trade and look for something else.

Stop losses. Stop losses, in the context of the stock market, are designed to prevent you losing vast quantities of money in one go. Basically, if you buy a stock and instead of going up it starts going down then at some point you are going to have to sell at a loss. An automatic stop loss, which you should select at the time you buy the stock, will automatically close the trade once the stock reaches a pre-determined price. Usually after losing around 4- 5% you should close the trade and take it on the chin. It is far better to lose 5% than to hang on to your shares in the hope of getting your money back and thereby end up losing 50%.

Stock trading online is all about balancing risks and rewards. You cannot win every time, but you can try and make sure that your winners make you more money than your losers lose. This is why swing traders are looking for a 10% profit but are only willing to bear a 5% loss.

There are other rules that swing traders often follow, such as not buying when the 5-day moving average is pointing down. (check the charts and see where the 5-day moving average is and which way it is pointing).

This introduction to how to buy stocks online for beginners was designed to give a very basic idea of some of the concepts that are used by stock traders. Professional stock traders do use charts and because they use them they often turn out to be self-fulfilling prophecies so it is important to understand what the charts mean, even if afterwards you choose to ignore them.

The subject of technical analysis is vast. One of the most widely used methods is that of Japanese candlesticks on which volumes have been written. There are also other things to consider like MACD, RSI (relative strength index) and many more so you really should get a basic knowledge of what they mean before risking your money.

But the absolute most simple basic idea when buying and selling stocks and shares is that of support and resistance and some people say they use nothing else. They find a stock that is following a trend and then buy it when it falls back to its support level and sell it when it reaches its resistance level. Then wait for it to fall back and do it all over again !

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For a video on where stock markets may be headed in 2011 - see stocks and shares

Wednesday, February 10

Should You Buy Toyota Stocks?

Stocks and Shares - Is it Time to Buy Toyota Yet?

Update : After Mr Toyoda's appearance and apologies yesterday I have posted an updated on Toyota - is it time to buy Toyota stocks  ?
A week ago we asked if it was time to buy Toyota - see - time to buy Toyota stocks?

Well since then we have had even more Toyota recall announcements. It seems like their ability to recall cars is never-ending. it is also interesting to note that 'official Toyota recall' ads. are appearing on sites with information about Toyota. What a change. And have we finally seen the bottom in Toyota's reputation and stock price? It is tempting to say yes, but then you think of all the class action lawsuits and you begin to wonder.On Thursday Feb. 4 Toyota's ADRs touched $71, and have since rebounded, closing at $74.60 on Tuesday.

Despite its loyal customers and prior reputation for quality Toyota is certainly in crisis. From a stock buyers point of view the question of course is whether the worst is over.

Standard & Poor's downgraded Toyota stocks from buy to hold on Feb. 3 because of the impending congressional hearings; speculation about a Prius recall; the potential for lawsuits. S&P said that if Toyota fix the problems then things willbe OK, but if they say they are fixed and they are not fixed then things could get worse.

The stock market apparently feel that Toyota can weather the storm. Auto sales are rebounding
TM Matsushima has out a buy/medium risk rating on the stock, with a target of $99.77 saying Toyota President Akio Toyoda's appearance at a press conference on Friday represented "the company's first step toward restoring confidence." He said. "However, given the heavy hit to the company's legacy, the restoration of consumer trust will take time."

Morgan Stanley analyst Noriaki Hirakata has given Toyota an overweight rating and said of Toyoda's press conference "it is a positive for brand revival that the firm has begun communicating with customers and has made a commitment to further press conferences," he wrote" but addded that a strengthening yen and prolonged stagnation in Europe and the U.S. markets are risk factors.

Our own personal view is that the fat lady still hasn't sung.


Time to Buy Toyota Stocks ?

Tuesday, February 9

Stock Rally May Be Brief

Stocks and Shares - DOW Stocks Rise in Early Trade



Stocks are ahead after the open in New York on Tuesday on talk that Greece may get help from the European Union. Comments by brokers also lifted shares of industrial companies such as Caterpillar Inc. - Morgan Stanley upgrading it to overweight.

The Dow Jones industrial average is ahead 116 points at 10,023 and the S&P is up 11 to 1067 or 1.1%. The Nasdaq Composite is up added 26 points, or 1.22$ to 2,152.

There are plenty fo people around however who think it won't last such as Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter fame. Oscar Carboni continue sto be bearish, expecting the S&P to rise to somwhere around 1070 before falling back - he is still a seller of rallies as the markets continue to trade before significant levels and moving averages.


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Thursday, February 4

Stocks Online Yell Surges 17% !

Buy Stocks Online - Time to Buy Yell ?

[UPDATE : Tempus in the Times says "On Deutsche Bank’s calculations, every 1% rise in sales translates into a 4% rise in operating profits and an 8% to 10% increase in eps. There is no dividend and net debt, even after a £660 million rights issue last year, is £3 billion. At 43¼p, this is a “buy” for the brave.]
Back in January 2007 Yell was at 600p, when it fell to 500p I thought it was cheap, today, after a 17% surge, it is at 43p ! So could the stock price finally have bottomed and is this the time to buy Yell stocks ?

The stock price soared today in London and finished at the day's high as the rest of the FTSE was tanking, not because the companyy is making vast amounts of money, but on signs of stability in Q3 as investors were encouraged to see the rate of decline in revenues finally slowing. Yell reported a 13% drop in revenue for the 3 months to December - an improvement on the 16% guidance.

Yell 10-year stock chart with 200 day moving average in red.



Yell 6 month stock chart with 200 day moving average - the stock price moved above the 200 day M.A. today



Revenue for the first 9 months of 2009 was £1.523 billion, down 13.3% year on year.

"Confidence is beginning to return to the small business community" they said. Small businesses account for most of Yell's advertising revenue.

Yell's printed directories are still finding life difficult in this new virtual age, but its internet business is improving. Internet revenue accounts for 20% of overall revenue compared with 15% last year.

CEO John Condron, said: "While the economic pressures remain, we continue to see early signs that the rate of revenue decline is stabilising and this quarter has again delivered revenue slightly above guidance. The fact that our usage and retention rates remain relatively resilient gives us confidence for the future and we continue to invest in our products and sales teams to ensure we are best placed to help our customers grow when the economy recovers."

Hard times are not over however with a 16% decline expected for this quarter.

EBITDA according to Yell to the end of March should be at least £600 million.

UBS said: "This looks to be a very good set of results for a stock where the mere absence of bad news often comes as a relief."

Time to buy Yell ? Well I'll be taking a close look over the next few days and maybe checking out my Japanese Candlestick charts for some inspiration - Japanese Candlesticks.
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Wednesday, February 3

Time to Buy Toyota ?

Stocks and Shares

Time to Buy Toyota Stocks?



[UPDATE : Toyota stock seem to have stabilized a bit but the recalls came being announced and there are lawsuits on the way - time to buy Toyota stocks?]

Unless you've been on Mars this week you are aware that Toyota are having problems with accelerators, gas pedals and brake pedals in a number of their models. Their stock price has slumped as a result so if you are not interested in their cars, is this the time to buying Toyota stocks?
Toyota in a statement yesterday said they were ‘Confident’ : “Our message to Toyota owners is this -- if you experience any issues with your accelerator pedal, please contact your dealer without delay. If you are not experiencing any issues with your pedal, we are confident that your vehicle is safe to drive.”

A US Transportation Department official said the government is investigating whether the cause is not the pedal but an electronic throttle system as is alleged in at least 17 lawsuits.

"In terms of electronics of the vehicle, we’ve done exhaustive testing and we’ve found no issues with the electronics,” Toyota’s Lentz said on a conference call with reporters Feb. 1

Toyota said it will fix the sticky-pedal problem by getting dealers to install a steel plate to reduce friction that may develop with condensation and wear.

The U.S. recall for pedals that stick applies to three SUVs from these model years, the 2009-2010 RAV4, 2010 Highlander and 2008-2010 Sequoia. Also covered by the safety action are the 2009-2010 Corolla and 2005-2010 Avalon sedans, some 2007-2010 Camry sedans, 2009-2010 Matrix hatchbacks, and 2007-2010 Tundra.

Toyota also has recalled about 5.6 million Toyotas and Lexus cars and trucks in the U.S. and Canada as the floor mats might trap accelerator pedals causing the cars to speed up uncontrollably. This includes the 2007-2010 Lexus ES350, 2006-2010 Lexus IS250 and 2006-2010 Lexus IS350. About 2.1 million Toyotas are covered by the recalls.

LaHood said to stop driving your Toyota but later retracted what he said.

Some people are terrified and there is also a problem with the brakes in some Prius cars in Japan.

The Prius problem in Japan could undermine Toyota sales in its home market, where so far there have been no recalls caused by the gas pedal issue. The Prius was Japan’s best-selling model in 2009 and is "Toyota’s flagship model, its key to the future,” said Ashvin Chotai, managing director of Intelligence Automotive Asia Ltd.. “If that model gets tainted, that would suggest Toyota’s crisis has moved on to the next level.”

Toyota also took a long time to deal with the problem, which first becamse common knowledge about 6 months ago.

But what about the Toyota stock? Today is down to a 10 month low losing 3.5% on the Tokyo stock exchange.

Toyota 6-year chart

Toyota 1-month chart


The chart doesn't look good and with Toyota's problems and lawsuits unlikely to go away anytime soon I won't be buying either their cars or their stocks.
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Monday, February 1

Stock Market Charts Bearish Again

Buy Stocks Online - OTAPMA says Stock Markets Headed Lower -  Stock Charts look Weak

[UPDATE : The markets rose yesterday but are still below Oscar Carboni's OTAPMA (What is OTAPMA ? - Omni Trading Academy Proprietary Moving Average) (see video below) so he is still bearish and still selling rallies, although he will be letting the markets settle down a bit and may not be trading the indices today. Art Cashin is also pretty negative on the markets at the moment, saying we might see a 2 day rally but then we will move down again.]

The stock market today is currently higher at +90 on the DOW and +11 on the S&P. It has been in rally mode since March 2009 basically, but it would appear that the rally is finally running out of steam. The DOW is actually down 7% in under two weeks, January was a negative month. Toronto's S&P/TSX index is off 6% since Jan. 19. So is the time to buy stocks online ?

Technical analysts are saying that stock market trading patterns indicate the market is tired. Volumes are much higher on down days than on up days. If you are considering buying stocks online then you need to consider what chart analysts are saying.

One stock market analyst that I like to follow is day trader Oscar Carboni. Why do I like to listen to what he says ? Because he puts his neck on the line by putting out videos before the markets open and giving clear explanations and recommendations in a language I can understand ! I have found that he is also pretty accurate. He was bearish on the markets all the way down to the bottom in March 2009, he then became bullish again towards the end of March, went briefly bearish (a few days) back in November - see Oscar Carboni - but now (i.e. today Feb 1) has very definitely turned bearish on the markets again.

What does it mean for trading stocks or indices when he is bearish? Basically, he waits for the stock market to rally slightly then sells (shorts) the rally on the expectation that the rally will not hold and the markets will turn back down. After he has made a few points profit he closes his trade before the markets close for the day (he is a day trader after all). When he is bullish he does the opposite i.e. he waits for the market to drop then buys the dips. But as of now he is officially bearish again so he is selling this rally in the S&P.

He may be stopped out of his trades, as he has said to sell the S&P in the mid to high 1070s and at the moment the S&P is at 1085, so depending on where he has set his stop, he may be stopped out. Stops serve to limit losses and are essential when day trading, as you will never get all your trades right, so you must limit the losers and make the most from the winners.

Nevertheless he has turned bearish today and will continue to sell any rallies until the charts indicate that the markets have turned up again (which may be a few months away). In his analysis of the charts he relies heavily on what he calls the OMNI trading proprietary moving average (OTAPMA) and he shows (in the video below) that the markets have all broken down through this moving average which is why he has now turned bearish.

So take a look at the video - Oscar Carboni is nothing if not enthusiastic, I don't know where he gets his energy from but he's certainly got plenty of it.

I should point out that I am not a subscriber to any of Oscar's paid services, I just like to watch the free videos and in my experience he gets it right a lot more often than he gets it wrong.



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